The No. 15 Michigan Wolverines head west for a Week 7 meeting with the USC Trojans in a battle between two teams sitting at 4-1.
The trip west for a 7:30 pm ET kickoff is a tough ask, but the Wolverines have been playing better football lately, making them an intriguing underdog pick.
See why my Michigan vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 11 fancy the Wolverines.
Michigan vs USC predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Michigan vs USC spread pick: Michigan +2.5
The USC Trojans are a pretty team on paper, sitting with a 4-1 record while scoring 48.4 ppg. That high-powered offense catches eyes, ranking second in EPA per play while being effective both on the ground (first in rushing success rate) and through the air (fourth).
The thing is, the stats were padded against Missouri State (73 points, 10.5 yards per play) and Georgia Southern (59 points, 12.0 yards per play). The Michigan Wolverines have held four of their five opponents below 5.0 yards per play, presenting an entirely different challenge.
Michigan hasn’t posted the same eye-popping offensive numbers, but it has been just as effective. The Wolverines have averaged at least 7.0 yards per play in four of five games, with the lone exception coming in Norman against a nasty Oklahoma defense (5.1 yards per play).
Justice Haynes & Co. should find room against a USC defense that has been vulnerable. The Trojans allowed 34 points and 502 total yards on 8.1 yards per play to Illinois, and 31 points on 6.1 yards per play to Michigan State.
Early Michigan vs USC total pick: Under 57.5
Both teams have been hyper-effective on offense, but this is a lot of points in a game that should have a pretty slow pace of play. Both teams should have enough offensive success to keep the clock ticking, but not enough to light up the scoreboard.
Michigan ranks 114th in plays per minute, preferring to lean on its vaunted rushing attack (19th in EPA per rush). Sherrone Moore should be able to do that against a USC defense that ranks 102nd in rushing success rate and 116th in line yards. The first downs will be there, but the big plays may not (USC eighth in rushing explosiveness allowed).
Jayden Maiava (11.4 yards per attempt) and Makai Lemon (589 receiving yards, five touchdowns) have been phenomenal for the Trojans. They’re still looking for secondary options to emerge in the passing game, however, and being one-dimensional against a tough Michigan defense isn’t optimal. Perhaps Ja’Kobi Lane (278 receiving yards) is healthier after the bye, but that’s not a sure thing.
Lincoln Riley’s offense is efficient, but it hasn’t been overly explosive (65th). The Wolverines have limited big plays, ranking Top 10 in explosiveness both on the ground and in the air.
Michigan vs USC odds
- Michigan vs. USC spread: USC -2.5
- Michigan vs. USC moneyline: Michigan +105, USC -125
- Michigan vs. USC Over/Under: 57.5
How to watch Michigan vs USC
- Michigan vs. USC matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Los Angeles, CA
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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