Look for the September hype to gain steam behind the winner of this helmet game. Either the Michigan Wolverines will get credit for an upset on the road behind their freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, or the Oklahoma Sooners will emerge as a possible SEC title contender as much of the rest of the conference faceplants in hyped non-conference matchups.
My early Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks instinctively trust the veteran quarterback in a home game against the 18-year-old making his first career road start.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 6.
Michigan vs Oklahoma predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Michigan vs Oklahoma spread pick: Oklahoma -5.5 (-110)
It is difficult and a bit foolish to read too far into Michigan beating New Mexico, 34-17, or Oklahoma beating FCS-level Illinois State, 35-3. But one particular aspect of the Wolverines’ win should spark worry heading to Norman. Of course, there was also the encouragement.
Michigan won the game via its rushing attack, something that should be expected not only because of a freshman quarterback but also because that is the clearest physical advantage the Wolverines own in a matchup with someone like a Mountain West cellar dweller. Michigan added 0.25 expected points per rush on 29 total designed attempts.
That will be less impactful against Oklahoma’s defensive front.
And the Sooners should throw the ball with delightful abandon. The Wolverines were more vulnerable to the Lobos’ passing game than can be ignored. It is not that New Mexico threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns, though it also had three interceptions. It is that the Lobos improved their statistical chances of scoring on 43% of their 51 designed pass plays.
That is a worrisome enough rate to then look at Oklahoma’s offense — led by Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer and his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle — and expect the Sooners’ downfield passing to dictate the terms at home.
Early Michigan vs Oklahoma total pick: Over 45.5 (-115)
If Oklahoma’s downfield passing game should dictate the terms at home, then the question becomes whether Michigan can keep up on the scoreboard at all. Enter Bryce Underwood.
He showed enough downfield explosiveness on Saturday against New Mexico, completing 21-of-31 passes for 251 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), to warrant some trust he will connect on at least a couple such moments against the Sooners.
Michigan vs Oklahoma odds
- Michigan vs. Oklahoma spread: Oklahoma -5.5
- Michigan vs. Oklahoma moneyline: Michigan +164, Oklahoma -200
- Michigan vs. Oklahoma Over/Under: 45.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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