The Michigan State Spartans are teetering toward a problem, but no one has noticed because they are 3-0 outright. They have underdelivered in all three wins, particularly undeserving of last week’s overtime win against Boston College.
The USC Trojans are on an opposite trend line, quite possibly rounding into the form long expected of Lincoln Riley.
My Michigan State vs. USC predictions largely bet on the Spartans’ struggles, but those obviously come to the Trojans’ benefit this weekend.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Michigan State vs USC predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Michigan State vs USC spread pick: USC -18.5
The first Michigan State red flag came in Week 1, up 21-0 by halftime against Western Michigan, and then packing it in entirely. The Spartans never needed to worry, winning 23-6, but their inability to produce in the second half signalled greater offensive concerns.
Even when on cruise control in a blowout, a three-score lead should inspire enough genuine offense to add a fourth score. Instead, Michigan State fell short of covering that 21.5-point spread.
Three weeks later, the Spartans are 0-3 against the spread, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 4.3 points. That may help explain this spread rising to -18.5 from opening at -13 on Sunday afternoon.
Some of that move can also be ascribed to USC, which handily cleared the spread in its first two games and flirted with doing so at Purdue in a blowout last weekend, but was content to ride a 20-point lead to the finish line in the fourth quarter.
The difference between those two specific ATS losses is that even while cruising, the Trojans found some success, kicking three field goals in the second half while leading by multiple possessions.
At home, expect USC to run up the score a bit more, especially as Michigan State struggles to stop competent offenses.
Early Michigan State vs USC total pick: Over 56.5
Siding with USC against the spread should encourage taking the Over on this relatively lofty total. It has actually fallen since it opened at 58, a counterintuitive move given the Trojans' find most success via their offense.
USC cleared the total in its first two games before easing off the gas at Purdue.
As bad as Michigan State is — No. 58 in the most recent SP+ rankings from ESPN.com — Purdue is a touchdown worse. In other words, the Trojans should have to press enough on Saturday night that they alone propel this game toward an Over.
Michigan State vs USC odds
- Michigan State vs. USC spread: USC -18.5
- Michigan State vs. USC moneyline: Michigan State +610, USC -950
- Michigan State vs. USC Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Michigan State vs USC
- Michigan State vs. USC matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 11:00 p.m. ET
- City: Los Angeles, CA
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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