The debate is over. The Miami Hurricanes are in the College Football Playoff, though few would envy their assignment as they head into a hostile road matchup against the Texas A&M Aggies.
Still, my Miami vs. Texas A&M predictions lean on Miami’s biggest advantage and see the CFP first round producing at least one outright upset.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
Miami vs Texas A&M predictions for the CFP First Round
Who will win Miami vs Texas A&M?
Texas A&M should be favored. A home game in a unique atmosphere demands deference.
And while “The 12th Man” might come across as a worrying cult, it is unquestionably excellent at producing decibels and chaos.
But on numbers alone, an argument can be made that Miami is the better team.
Furthermore, the Aggies stumbled their way through the end of the season. Going 0-3 against the spread in the season’s final weeks was worrying, particularly given that Texas A&M fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.3 points in those three games.
Meanwhile, Miami went 4-0 outright and 2-2 ATS in a do-or-die homestretch, those two ATS losses coming by a hook and a point. The Hurricanes may have been building more than the world noticed, and it will be noticed on Saturday.
Miami vs Texas A&M best bet: Miami moneyline (+136)
No one has cracked more jokes at Mario Cristobal’s expense the last two years than yours truly. This bet is made with complete and total awareness of his shortcomings, his foolish game management, and his baffling inability to read a clock.
That said, Miami's head coach got one thing definitively right this season: He invested in the Hurricanes' defensive line.
It paid off, with Miami ranking No. 16 in the country with 2.83 sacks per game this season and No. 19 in tackles for loss per game. Note: Texas A&M ranks No. 1 and No. 2 in those categories, respectively.
Suggesting the Hurricanes’ defensive line is far and away better than Texas A&M's would be overambitious. The Aggies fare quite well in preventing negative plays, No. 11 in sacks allowed per game, and No. 1 in tackles for loss allowed per game.
But the reality is, much of that reflects Texas A&M’s offensive design.
Looking at advanced metrics, Miami gives up pressure at the lowest rate in the country, per CFB-graphs.com, and Carson Beck certainly has the experience to manage any that gets through. On the other side of the ball, A&M gives up pressure at the No. 21 lowest rate, more than 10% more often than Miami does, and Marcel Reed can be a bit skittish when flustered.
An underdog with an edge in the trenches is an underdog with value, even if it’s coached by Mario Cristobal.
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Miami vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
Perhaps the one weakness in Miami’s defensive front is how it defends designed quarterback runs.
That is not necessarily a Texas A&M emphasis, ranking No. 99 in quarterback-designed run rate this season according to CFB-graphs.com, but the Aggies were successful when they deployed it, No. 35 in expected points added (EPA) on such plays. Leaning on Marcel Reed near the goal line should be an emphasis, perhaps one out of desperation, but an emphasis regardless.
Once Miami nearly lost its way out of the College Football Playoff picture, the Hurricanes finally remembered their best offensive weapon, freshman receiver Malachi Toney. Four of his seven touchdown catches this season came in the last three weeks.
Miami vs Texas A&M SGP
- Miami moneyline
- Marcel Reed anytime touchdown
- Malachi Toney anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Under Gang
The Miami moneyline is based largely on the Hurricanes' defensive line.
That logic also supports an Under, and at this payout, that logic could become comically profitable.
Miami vs Texas A&M SGP
- Miami moneyline
- Marcel Reed anytime touchdown
- Malachi Toney anytime touchdown
- Under 48.5
Miami vs Texas A&M game predictions
Miami vs Texas A&M spread prediction
A more cautious betting analyst would be arguing for Miami at +3.5, especially as long as that hook exists.
Instinct says it will fall to +3 before Saturday’s kickoff.
Miami vs Texas A&M Over/Under prediction
Faith in two defensive lines is faith in an Under, isn’t it?
These are two offenses that prefer to throw the ball, both dropping back nearly 5% more often than an average team would in a given game state, but the stakes may prompt some early conservative play calling.
If leaning toward an Over, perhaps wait until after a low-scoring first half, and then catch a deflated number.
Miami vs Texas A&M odds
- Spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) | Texas A&M -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +136 | Texas A&M -162
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Miami vs Texas A&M trend to know
Texas A&M was a one-score favorite in half its games this season, going 3-3 against the spread in those. Only one home game had those stakes: a 16-10 win against Auburn as a 6.5-point favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Miami vs Texas A&M.
How to watch Miami vs Texas A&M
| Location | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date | Saturday, December 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN & ABC |
Miami vs Texas A&M latest injuries
Miami vs Texas A&M weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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