The Miami Hurricanes and Ohio State Buckeyes meet in tonight's Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.
Ohio State is heavily favored in this battle between elite defenses, but perhaps not everything is as it seems.
Our betting experts have been hard at work to bring you their best Miami vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for this first CFP Quarterfinal match on Wednesday, December 31.
Miami vs Ohio State Cotton Bowl predictions
- Miami +9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- Over 40.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
- Toney anytime TD (+180 at FanDuel)
- Sayin Under 236.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Miami vs Ohio State best bets
Miami +9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
You can make the case that the only two elite defenses the Ohio State Buckeyes faced were Texas and Indiana. Those games ended in a 14-7 Buckeyes win and a loss in the Big Ten title game; both one-score games.
The Miami Hurricanes would fall into the elite category. Led by edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., the Canes have one of the best defensive fronts in the country, ranking seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate. This will, at the very least, keep this closer than the spread suggests.
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Over 40.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
This spread has dropped slightly from 41.5 to 40.5, which suits our purposes just fine. The total was already too low, an overreaction to recent games these teams have played, and while both defenses are indeed elite, the offenses aren't too shabby, either.
The Hurricanes rank 14th in EPA per play and 10th in offensive success rate, while the Buckeyes are fourth and first in those respective categories. A 24-21 or 27-20 game feels much more likely than another low-scoring slugfest.
Miami vs Ohio State TD pick
Malachi Toney anytime touchdown (+180 at FanDuel)
Malachi Toney has scored in each of the last four games, as well as in six of the Hurricanes’ last nine contests.
Even against Texas A&M's Top-10 passing defense, Toney found the end zone on a jet sweep. Miami knows it needs to get the ball to its best player, and we're getting great odds for that to happen.
Miami vs Ohio State prop pick
Julian Sayin Under 236.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin is certainly capable of clearing this prop. He did so even in the pedestrian Big Ten title game, throwing for 258 yards in a 13-10 slog. But he also fell short of this number in the three games before that, as well as against perhaps the two best teams the Buckeyes faced in the regular season, Texas and Illinois.
A slow start wouldn't be surprising.
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Miami vs Ohio State odds
Miami vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, December 31, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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