As shocking as it may seem that the Vanderbilt Commodores are favored against the LSU Tigers, do not ascribe that entire reality to Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia. He may be their best player, but this is a complete roster by now.
My LSU vs. Vanderbilt SGP predictions and college football picks look for Pavia to trust that complete roster. Kickoff comes at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 18.
Our best LSU vs Vanderbilt SGP for Week 8
The LSU Tigers defense is effectively molded to stop designed quarterback runs. Opponents still try it, at the seventh-highest rate in the country, but it goes very badly, costing foes 0.204 expected points per designed quarterback run, per CFB-graphs.com.
The Tigers simply have the edge defenders and linebackers to rein in bold quarterbacks. And Diego Pavia is absolutely a bold quarterback.
But if the Vanderbilt Commodores recognize this and leans into the passing game, they should find success.
That is already the lesser piece of LSU’s defense, and it is something the Commodores have done in recent weeks, peaking thus far against Alabama two weeks ago by passing the ball 16.1% more often than an average team would in a given game state.
That is the recipe to use to attack the Tigers. Keep Pavia in the pocket and looking downfield at his excellent receiving corps.
It is not that I expect Diego Pavia to be ineffective against LSU.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 16, 2025
It is that his best effect against LSU's defense will be from the pocket. https://t.co/j1r2f4db4I pic.twitter.com/bC06tVVeMt
Even running back Sedrick Alexander seems to be a piece of that receiving corps, catching touchdown passes against both South Carolina and Alabama, also running in one score in each game.
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