The Louisville Cardinals' win total might be the same as it was a season ago, but oddsmakers' expectations have changed. And not for the better.
Louisville went 8-4 in the 2025 regular season, finishing 4-4 in ACC play and falling a half-win short of an 8.5-win total for the second time in the last three graded seasons where the Cardinals posted eight wins. The market has set the 2026 total at 8.5 again (equalling the highest line Louisville has faced since 2017) but with the Under priced as a significant favorite.
Here’s a look at the recent history of Louisville win totals, along with predictions on whether the Cardinals will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5:
Louisville 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 8.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 7.5* | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 7.5* | ⚪ |
| Dalton Pence | Locked On Louisville Podcast | OVER 7.5* | 🟢 |
*Picks made at alternate 7.5 win total, where some sportsbooks opened.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Louisville could be favored in as many as 10 games this year. I bet over 7.5 wins earlier this off-season but FanDuel is now trading the win total at 8.5. The home game vs SMU in Week 3 could decide who plays Miami in the ACC Championship game.
Rob Paul
Jeff Brohm has won at least eight regular-season games for five straight seasons, including all three years he’s led Louisville, and for the fourth straight year at his alma mater, he’ll be starting a transfer QB. Though Lincoln Kienholz (Ohio State) is the first transfer QB without previous starting experience that Brohm is betting on, the former Buckeye will have plenty of support.
The Cardinals have one of the best running back duos in the nation - Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown - and Brohm landed the No. 13 transfer portal class, highlighted by pass catchers Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt) and Brody Foley (Tulsa). The defense isn’t short on talent either, bringing back a pair of lethal pass rushers (Clev Lubin and AJ Green), linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts, and adding safety Koen Entringer (Iowa).
Colby Marchio
Question: Do I, or do I not currently have a pulse? I do.
Is this, or is this not the ACC? It is.
So let’s take the over 7.5 wins on the Cardinals.
With the lovable and intense Jeff Brohm at the helm leading his alma mater, I’m buying into this over. Brohm consistently gets the most out of his players, and there is no reason to believe that changes in 2026.
This program brings in former Ohio State quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who may not be the most naturally gifted quarterback in the country, but there are plenty of people around this program and across the country who believe Brohm can help unlock something special. He’s tough, he’s smart, and he brings a high football IQ to the position.
If Kienholz can provide steady quarterback play, this Louisville offense should be more than capable of carrying them to 8+ wins. And sneaking past Ole Miss in Week 1 could end up being the difference maker.
📰 Louisville media win total predictions
Dalton Pence, Locked On Louisville Podcast
Jeff Brohm has won at least 8+ regular season games in each of his first three seasons at Louisville. The Cardinals’ extremely talented roster and favorable schedule could lead them to double-digit wins in 2026.
Louisville win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Louisville historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -160 | +135 | 8 | Under |
| 2024 | 8 | -115 | -105 | 8 | Push |
| 2023 | 8 | -120 | +100 | 10 | Over |
| 2022 | 6.5 | +105 | -125 | 7 | Over |
| 2021 | 6.5 | -105 | -115 | 6 | Under |
| 2019 | 3.5 | -150 | +130 | 7 | Over |
| 2018 | 7 | +110 | -130 | 2 | Under |
| 2017 | 9.5 | +130 | -150 | 8 | Under |
| 2016 | 8.5 | -190 | +160 | 9 | Over |
| 2015 | 7.5 | -135 | +115 | 7 | Under |
| 2014 | 8 | +100 | -120 | 9 | Over |
| 2013 | 10.5 | -105 | -125 | 11 | Over |
| 2012 | 9 | +135 | -175 | 10 | Over |
| 2006 | 10 | -140 | +120 | 11 | Over |
| 2005 | 9.5 | -170 | +140 | 9 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A slight Over lean in a balanced dataset: Louisville has gone Over its win total eight times in 15 graded seasons, against six Unders and one push, a modest lean toward the Over with no dominant pattern across eras.
- Three consecutive Overs from 2012 through 2014: The only multi-year Over streak in this dataset came during Louisville’s peak under Charlie Strong, when the Cardinals cleared their win total in three straight seasons. No other sequence in this dataset reaches three consecutive results in either direction.
- Crazy eights: It's a somewhat lucky number for the program, which enters 2026 having gone 3-1-1 to the Over in five instances where the win total has been set at 8 or 8.5.
How Louisville win totals are priced
The win totals might be the same from one year to the next, but the Cardinals are seeing considerably less faith in their ability to beat it this time around.
In fact, you're getting nearly an identical number on this year's O7.5 (-166) as you saw on last year's O8.5 (-160). This year's O8.5? That comes in at +124, carrying with it an implied probability of 44.64%. On the plus side, that number provides plenty of potential value for bettors who put their trust in Louisville to be a little better in 2026.
Conversely, you're not getting much value on Louisville's conference win total Over. The O5.5 is a pedestrian -180, while the Under is +150.
Louisville’s 2018 season produced the largest Under whiff in program history. Set at 7 wins, the Cardinals finished 2-10, falling five wins short of the total.
Louisville win total FAQs
Will Louisville make the CFP?
Louisville is priced at +550 to reach the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Louisville's projected win total?
The Cardinals’ win total sits at 8.5 for 2026, with the Over at +124 and the Under at -158.
Who is Louisville's starting QB?
Lincoln Kienholz takes over as the Cardinals' starting quarterback; he threw for 250 combined yards in two years as an Ohio State reserve.
What is the most notable Louisville win total trend?
Louisville has gone Over its win total eight times in 15 graded seasons, but the program has leveled off recently, posting exactly eight wins in both 2024 and 2025 while going push and Under against totals of 8 and 8.5.
What’s the best bet for Louisville this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER on Louisville's alternate 7.5 win total is the unanimous option. As for the 8.5? There is no universal agreement here, so you might be better off taking the lower number as a safeguard.
