The road back to respectability might be a long one for the reeling Florida State Seminoles.
Florida State went 5-7 in 2025, its second straight disappointing season after a 2-10 collapse in 2024, and a program that won 12 games and nearly reached the CFP in 2023 has now missed its win total in back-to-back years. The market has dropped the 2026 total to 6.5 (a significant reduction from the double-digit expectations FSU carried just three years ago) with the Under priced as a clear favorite.
Here’s a look at the recent history of Florida State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Seminoles will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 6.5:
Florida State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 5.5* | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 6.5 | ⚪ |
| Brian Smith | Locked On Seminoles Podcast | UNDER 6.5 | 🟢 |
*Made pick at alternate total of 5.5.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Despite going 5-7 last year, Florida State ranked No. 8 in the country in yards per game margin at plus-144! That usually bodes well for the following season. FanDuel is one of the only books to list Florida State’s win total at 5.5. I have bet the Over on that number.
Rob Paul
If money were infinite, Florida State would have paid Mike Norvell’s $50-plus-million buyout after the 2025 season. Instead, he’s a dead man walking into 2026 with a schedule that’s top 50 in the country in terms of SOS (.563) and yet another transfer QB, Ashton Daniels (Auburn).
While the Seminoles do have a handful of stars - Duce Robinson, Mandrell Desir - they’re relying heavily on a transfer portal class that wasn’t ranked in the top 25. Those transfers include four of Florida State’s five projected starting offensive linemen. If the Seminoles win more than six games, it will be because of Tony White’s defense and the run game clicking with Texas transfer Quintrevion Wisner.
Colby Marchio
The Seminoles kicked off the 2025 season with a statement upset over Alabama in Week 1, only to finish the year 5-7 and just 2-7 in conference play.
With former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn stepping down, head coach Mike Norvell will be back calling the plays on offense. The team did lose a significant amount of talent, but Norvell has done an incredible job rebuilding this roster and putting together a team that could be much better than it was a year ago.
📰 Florida State media win total predictions
Brian Smith, Locked On Seminoles Podcast
FSU is the most mismanaged major college football program in the country. They will be up and down, but a tough schedule leaves the Noles at 4-8 or maybe 5-7.
Florida State win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(Florida State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | +200 | -250 | 5 | Under |
| 2024 | 9.5 | +105 | -125 | 2 | Under |
| 2023 | 9.5 | -145 | +120 | 12 | Over |
| 2022 | 6.5 | -130 | +110 | 9 | Over |
| 2021 | 5.5 | -125 | +105 | 5 | Under |
| 2019 | 7.5 | -130 | +110 | 6 | Under |
| 2018 | 8 | -120 | +100 | 5 | Under |
| 2017 | 9.5 | -140 | +120 | 6 | Under |
| 2016 | 10 | +100 | -120 | 9 | Under |
| 2015 | 9 | -140 | +120 | 10 | Over |
| 2014 | 11.5 | +110 | -130 | 12 | Over |
| 2013 | 10 | -115 | -115 | 12 | Over |
| 2011 | 10 | +120 | -150 | 8 | Under |
| 2010 | 8 | +110 | -140 | 9 | Over |
| 2009 | 7.5 | -120 | -110 | 6 | Under |
| 2008 | 8 | NA | NA | 8 | Push |
| 2006 | 9.5 | -170 | +150 | 6 | Under |
| 2005 | 8.5 | +100 | -130 | 7 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- One of the heaviest Under leans in this series: Florida State has gone Under its win total 11 times in 18 graded seasons, against just six Overs and one Push. That translates to a 61% Under rate that is among the most pronounced in the conference.
- Five consecutive Unders from 2016 through 2021: Florida State missed its win total in five straight graded seasons as the program declined from its Jimbo Fisher peak. The market was slow to adjust, setting totals in the 7.5-to-9.5 range throughout a stretch where the Seminoles never cleared seven wins.
- Back-to-back Overs gave way to back-to-back Unders After clearing the number in consecutive seasons during a brief resurgence, Florida State has missed its win total in each of the last two years, including a catastrophic 2024 campaign that set the tone for where the market now prices the program.
How Florida State win totals are priced
Three years of increased optimism from bookmakers has given way to a more realistic win total number, and it's no given that the Seminoles will even meet these reduced expectations.
With the O6.5 set at +134, the books are expecting another .500 or worse season from Florida State. And who could blame them? FSU has been mostly dismal over the previous two seasons and didn't do enough in the offseason to suggest that a significant turnaround is in the cards.
If you'd prefer to take shot at the Seminoles' ACC win total, that's locked in at 3.5; the Over is set at -130, with the Under at +110.
Florida State’s 2024 season produced the largest Under miss in school history. Set at 9.5 wins, the Seminoles finished 2-10, falling seven and a half wins short of the total.
Florida State win total FAQs
Will Florida State make the CFP?
Florida State is priced at +2000 to win the ACC and reach the 2026-27 playoff.
What is Florida State's projected win total?
The Seminoles’ win total sits at 6.5 for 2026, with the Over at +134 and the Under at -160.
Who is Florida State's starting QB?
Ashton Daniels begins the year as the Seminoles' QB1; he threw for 797 yards with Auburn last season following two years with Stanford.
What’s the best bet for Florida State this season?
Our analysts are all over the place, but it appears the OVER is the slightly better play at this number.
