The NC State Wolf Pack have established quite a win total trend, one they'd absolutely like to end this season.
NC State went 7-5 in the 2025 regular season, finishing 4-4 in the ACC and clearing a 6.5-win total. The Wolfpack have produced one of the most striking win total patterns in this series, alternating Over and Under in every graded season since 2017, and the market has set the 2026 total conservatively while anticipating this trend continuing.
Here’s a look at the recent history of NC State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Wolfpack will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 7.5:
NC State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 7.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 7.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 7.5 | ⚪ |
| Tucker Sennett | NC State Wolfpack On SI (former) | OVER 7.5 | 🟡 |
| Matthew Bradham | Pack Pride | OVER 7.5 | 🟢 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Quarterback CJ Bailey returns but the Wolf Pack lost five starters to the transfer portal including running back Hollywood Smothers to Texas. NC State was also out-gained last season despite an 8-5 record. They had a neutral site game vs Virginia get changed to a true road game.
Rob Paul
Dave Doeren’s team will live and die by the development of QB CJ Bailey this season.
If he takes a leap in his third year as a starter and lives up to his NFL billing, the Wolfpack will be a tough out in ACC play. And with an influx of pass catchers, led by a trio of transfers - JoJo Trader (Miami), Davion Dozier (Appalachian State), Victor Snow (Buffalo) - Bailey should have plenty of options to lean on. He’ll also have one of the best running backs in the ACC in Duke Scott.
The defense is transfer-heavy, with linebacker Popo Aguirre (Miami) and safety King Mack (Penn State) being the best of the bunch. But a schedule that’s outside of the top 50 in SOS (.542) should help NC State push for eight wins.
Colby Marchio
Fine, I’ll bite.
I’m drinking the Kool Aid we have all consumed over the last decade, believing this is finally the year the Wolf Pack put it all together.
From everything I’ve read and broken down, there is a lot to like about NC State. They gave up far too many explosive plays last season, but they addressed those issues by bringing in reinforcements from Miami and Georgia to help shore up the defense.
They were also worried about losing CJ Bailey, but found the resources to keep their guy in place. That could end up being one of the biggest moves of their offseason.
Offensively, NC State loves utilizing their tight ends. Last season, they were one of just three FBS teams whose tight ends accounted for at least 80 targets. They added Vander Ploog, a great name by the way, from Oregon and Hunter Provience from Montana State to help fill the holes at the position.
If the Wolf Pack can start the season by shocking the ACC and taking down Virginia in Week 1, it could set the tone for a very interesting 2026 campaign.
📰 NC State media win total predictions
Tucker Sennett, NC State Wolfpack on SI (former)
It all comes down to the first three weeks of the season quite frankly. If the Pack can beat the ACC runner up in Charlottesville and go on the road and beat a rebuilding SEC program, eight wins seems like the floor of what could be a special season for Dave Doeren.
There's some key roster continuity, starting with one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the sport in CJ Bailey. The Florida native showed flashes of being a special passer as a sophomore, but struggled against top defenses. Luckily for the Wolfpack, 2026 doesn't present Bailey with as many stiff defensive challenges or ACC foes, with most of the scary opponents being closer to question marks than guaranteed tough games.
There's always a risk with having expectations for Doeren and NC State, but there's been a different energy about this group since Bailey and some key offensive linemen signed back on to play another year with the program. Doeren is as invested as he's been in his entire tenure, which could be scary for the rest of the ACC. Couple that with one of the best home field advantages in the league and State could be a dark horse contender in a mysterious conference.
Matthew Bradham, Pack Pride
This might not be Dave Doeren's most talented team, but it might have the best chance to win 10 games, which has only been done once in NC State history.
The Wolfpack has one of the weakest schedules in the Power 4 ranks, and they are one of the few schools in the country to return an all-conference caliber Quarterback who started the previous two seasons.
NC State win totals, odds and results (2017-25)
(NC State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.5 | +120 | -145 | 7 | Over |
| 2024 | 8.5 | -150 | +125 | 6 | Under |
| 2023 | 6.5 | -155 | +130 | 9 | Over |
| 2022 | 8.5 | -160 | +135 | 8 | Under |
| 2021 | 6.5 | -115 | -105 | 9 | Over |
| 2019 | 7 | -130 | +110 | 4 | Under |
| 2018 | 7.5 | +110 | -130 | 8 | N/A |
| 2017 | 7 | -170 | +145 | 8 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A slight Over lean in a small dataset: NC State has gone Over its win total four times in seven graded seasons, against three Unders and no pushes.
- A perfect pattern: NC State has alternated Over and Under results without exception since 2017. No other program in the ACC has produced this pattern across its dataset.
- The win total line is the key variable: All three of NC State’s Unders came when the total was set at 7 or higher, and two of three Overs at 6.5 came by two or more wins.
How NC State win totals are priced
Oddsmakers like the Wolf Pack to go bowling again in 2026, but there's serious doubt about whether they can return to the glory days of 2023.
The O7.5 is set at +120, with the Under at -140. It's a minor indictment of an NC State program that has struggled with consistency, opening 3-0 last season before dropping four of its next five and needing wins in three of four to end the season as a bowl team.
QB CJ Bailey's return provides a stable offensive base, but the loss of No. 1 RB Hollywood Smothers hurts. Getting off to a quick start (highlighted by road games vs. Virginia and Vanderbilt in the first three weeks) is paramount, with six of NC State's next seven games coming at home.
Oddsmakers like this team to snag 5+ wins in conference play, setting NC State's ACC victory number at 4.5 with the Over at -180 and the Under at +150.
NC State is 16-5 SU (12-8-1 ATS) in 21 games after a loss over the previous five seasons.
NC State win total FAQs
Will NC State make the CFP?
NC State is priced at +1200 to reach the 2026-27 playoff.
What is NC State's projected win total?
The Wolfpack’s win total sits at 7.5 for 2026, with the Over at +120 and the Under at -140.
Who is NC State's starting QB?
Junior standout CJ Bailey returns for his third season as the Wolf Pack QB1. He threw for 3,105 yards and 25 touchdowns last season.
What is the most notable NC State win total trend?
NC State has alternated Over and Under in every graded season since 2017 without exception. And based on the odds, books like that pattern to continue in 2026.
What’s the best bet for NC State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER is the slightly superior play on NC State's 2026 win total.
