In theory, the Arkansas State Red Wolves remain in contention to win the Sun Belt’s West division, but they would need two Southern Miss losses in the last two weeks of the season to realize that hope.
The Red Wolves’ focus may thus wander a touch coming off an idle week, and against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns’ rushing attack, that will prove costly.
My Louisiana vs. Arkansas State predictions expect a slowed game, and one dictated by the road underdog.
Read more in my college football picks for Thursday, November 20.
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Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction
Louisiana vs Arkansas State best bet: Under 54.5 (-114)
Louisiana still has hopes of reaching a bowl game, needing to win each of its final two games to do so. With all due respect to UL-Monroe, this should be the greater test.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have neared bowl hopes by winning their last two games despite being short underdogs in each of them, and those wins came courtesy of an increased emphasis on the rushing game.
Louisiana has run more often than most teams all season, ranking No. 11 in relative rate per CFB-graphs.com. That peaked at 18.0% above expected in the win over South Alabama, while last week’s victory against Texas State featured a more modest 12.3% — still the Cajuns’ second-highest rate of the season.
Even though Arkansas State has many flaws, its rush defense is actually decent. Far from good, mind you, but it rates in the middle of the Sun Belt and is far better than its passing defense.
As the Cajuns insist on running the ball, that should lead to some Red Wolves’ defensive successes, eating up clock and shortening this game.
Arkansas State’s offense isn’t strong enough — and statistically, it’s worse than Louisiana’s defense and plays directly into the Cajuns’ No. 5 conference ranking in EPA per dropback — to push this total anywhere close on its own.
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Louisiana vs Arkansas State same-game parlay
Louisiana has the better offense where it matters most, as well as the better defense where it matters most.
Trusting the better team in scoring territory as a plus-money underdog makes easy sense, and if the Ragin’ Cajuns do indeed shorten this game, it will most likely be via handoffs to running back Bill Davis, who has cleared this prop in two of their last four games.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State SGP
- Under 54.5
- Louisiana moneyline
- Bill Davis Over 63.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Perry Punches One In
As Louisiana scores 3.39 points per quality drive, junior running back Zylan Perry has often played the key role where it matters most, scoring seven times this season and in five of his last seven games.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State SGP
- Under 54.5
- Louisiana moneyline
- Bill Davis Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Zylan Perry anytime touchdown
Louisiana vs Arkansas State odds
- Spread: Louisiana +2.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisiana +116 | Arkansas State -136
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
Louisiana vs Arkansas State trend to know
The Red Wolves' last eight games have all gone Under their totals by an average of 10.7 points. Find more college football betting trends for Louisiana vs Arkansas State.
How to watch Louisiana vs Arkansas State
| Location | Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR |
| Date | Thursday, November 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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