Liberty vs Toledo Prediction: Boca Raton Bowl Odds and Picks

The Boca Raton Bowl features the Toledo Rockets (8-5) and the Liberty Flames (8-4) in a high-level matchup between two non-Power Five teams.

Toledo came out on top in the MAC, taking home the school’s first conference championship since 2017. Jason Candle & Co. will look for one more win to make this season even more special.

At one point, Liberty looked like one of the most underrated teams in the country, but the Flames faltered to end the season and then coach Hugh Freeze departed for Auburn. Will they be able to get back on the wagon?

Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Toledo on December 20. 

Liberty vs Toledo best odds

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Liberty vs Toledo picks and predictions

Flashback to November 5 and Liberty was riding high with an 8-1 record fresh off an upset victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville.

Things tanked after that, as the Flames lost three straight, including embarrassing upset losses to UConn (33-36) and New Mexico State (14-49). The Flames went 0-3 ATS in that stretch with an average cover margin of -29.2... far from impressive stuff. 

Hugh Freeze departing for Auburn is a big loss considering he compiled an impressive 34-15 record across four seasons with the Flames. The program will be in good hands going forward after Jamey Chadwell, a rising star in the coaching ranks, was tabbed Freeze’s successor.

All Chadwell did at his last stop is compile a 31-6 record across his last three seasons with Coastal Carolina to bring the Chanticleers into relevance. Chadwell won’t be coaching in this game, however, as co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Josh Aldridge was tabbed interim head coach for the bowl game.

There are still questions about how this Liberty team will look. The Flames used three quarterbacks (Kaidon Salter, Charlie Brewer, and Johnathan Bennett) in the regular season finale and none managed 6.0 yards per attempt, and Alradige has not publicly named an offensive play caller. 

Toledo should be relatively full-speed after quarterback Dequan Finn played in the MAC title game and looked healthy after nursing an injury for the second half of the season. There aren’t many injuries, opt-outs, or transfer portals impacting the Rockets.

With unknowns on the Liberty side of things, I’ll boil this best bet down to what we know — both teams could struggle to move the ball in this spot. Liberty ranks 94th in EPA per play offensively, and it doesn’t have a clear option at quarterback and will be hurting without Freeze leading the offense.

Toledo has been fantastic on defense this season, ranking ninth in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. The Rockets had seven defensive players named to an All-Mac team, with four making the first team and three making the second.

When Toledo has the ball, it also will be facing a tough test against a Liberty team ranking 20th in EPA per play and ninth in success rate. The Flames are dominant in the trenches, ranking ninth in line yards and eighth in stuff rate while notching the most tackles for loss (109) in the country. Give me the Under. 

My best bet: Under 54 (-110 at DraftKings)

Liberty vs Toledo spread analysis

Statistically speaking, Toledo has been the better team on both sides of the ball. The Rockets top the Flames in EPA per play on both offense (67th to 94th) and defense (ninth to 20th).

It’s not as though there’s been a drastic difference in strength of schedule, either, as both are Group of Five teams. In fact, ESPN’s College Football Power Index actually tabs Toledo (76th in SOS) with a much more difficult schedule than Liberty (118th in SOS).

This all makes Toledo a deserving favorite in the Boca Raton Bowl. After opening at -1.5, the Rockets have shot up to -5 at current, although -4.5 is also still available at some locations. 

Neither team has been profitable to back this year. Liberty is 5-7 ATS while Toledo is worse at 5-8 ATS. Liberty has won three straight bowl games, but those all came under Freeze, who is no longer running the program.

Backing MAC teams in bowl season isn’t my favorite thing to do as the conference is truly miserable. That being said, Toledo is the better team on paper while Liberty is dealing with the departure of its head coach.

The Flames’ offense stalled out over the last month of the season and now faces a tough Toledo defense surrendering just 4.7 yards per play. It’s favorite or pass for this bettor.

Liberty vs Toledo Over/Under analysis

There are trends supporting the Under on both sides. Liberty is 4-1 to the Under in its last five non-conference games and is 8-3 to the Under in its last 11 games against a team with a winning record. Both of those trends are certainly in play against the MAC Champions. Toledo, meanwhile, is 4-1 to the Under in its last five games. 

Toledo grades out very well in almost all areas defensively. The Rockets do a great job of keeping offenses behind the chains, ranking seventh in standard down success rate. Once Liberty is forced into throwing situations, it could be in for tough sledding against a defense ranking fifth in passing downs EPA and 10th in passing downs success rate.

Expecting Liberty to run the ball with great execution may not be wise as the Rockets are 9th in Rushing Success rate defensively.

The Rockets will also find it difficult to repeatedly stay ahead of the chains when they have the ball as Liberty ranks fifth in standard downs success rate. The Flames create a ton of havoc (ninth nationally) and a dominant front seven has wrecked opposing offenses for much of the season. 

Liberty vs Toledo betting trend to know

Liberty is 8-3 to the Under in its last 11 games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Liberty vs. Toledo.

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