Liberty vs Jacksonville State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Defense Is the Name of the Game

A C-USA clash between the two best teams in the conference is the perfect viewing for pigskin-obsessed fans looking to get in on the college football odds action tonight.

Liberty is 5-0 under new head coach Jamey Chadwell and coming off a close call against conference bottom feeder Sam Houston State in which the Bearkats couldn’t finish a 96-yard drive at the end of the game to earn their first FBS win. The Gamecocks are the antithesis of Sam Houston, making the leap from FCS to FBS under head coach Rich Rodriguez and starting the season 5-1, thanks to some stingy defense.

Find out where my best bets lie in my college football picks for Liberty vs. Jacksonville State on Tuesday, October 10.

Liberty vs Jacksonville State best odds

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Liberty vs Jacksonville State picks and predictions

It’s quite the juxtaposition to see a team coached by Chadwell, who brought his variation of the spread-option to prominence at Coastal Carolina, and Rodriguez, the godfather of the spread-option that took the country by storm at West Virginia, playing in a game where points could be hard to come by.

While both these teams can certainly run the rock at a high level, neither has been able to consistently throw it much this year. The clock will be bleeding out while two of the better Group of Five defenses keep the scoring low. Hello, Under 56.5.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks' defensive coordinator Zac Alley has been a key cog behind the team's early success in the FBS. His unit has been borderline dominant, sitting seventh in EPA per play, 27th in EPA per dropback, and 12th in EPA per rush. 

Led by pass rusher Chris Hardie — a potential NFL Draft pick — the Gamecocks have been terrorizing quarterbacks all season with 22 sacks in six games... fourth most in the country. 

While they are more susceptible through the air, they’re still just allowing 240.2 passing yards per game and have given up only six passing touchdowns while intercepting 10 passes — tied for third most in the country. 

With the pressure they get and the mistakes they force, a team like Liberty who loves to run the ball would normally stick to the ground, but the Gamecocks are even better there. They’re allowing just 112.7 rushing yards per game, seventh best in the Group of Five, at 2.7 per carry, tied for seventh best in the country, and have the eighth most forced fumbles (eight) in the FBS.

This season, Jacksonville State is giving up 17.5 points per game, 21st in the country, and Liberty’s defense is only slightly behind them at 18 per game, 24th in the country.

This Liberty Flames defense has been impressive under defensive coordinator Skylor Magee. They rank 33rd in EPA per play and have throttled passing attacks, where they sit 20th in EPA per pass.

Ranking 14th in passing yards allowed among Group of Five programs, giving up just 196.8 per game, Liberty has intercepted more passes (11) than they’ve given up touchdowns (eight) and are second in the country in interceptions on top of allowing the ninth lowest passer rating in college football (102.9).

Despite the Liberty run defense not being quite as impressive as its pass D, the Flames allow just 116.8 rushing yards per game.

Further supporting the Under, the Flames have hit the Under in eight of their last 12 outings (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI) and Jacksonville State has hit it in its last three home games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI).

My best bet: Under 56.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Liberty vs Jacksonville State same-game parlay

Under 56.5

Jacksonville State +6.5

+240 at bet365

All season both of these teams have relied on defenses that force turnovers and offenses that run the ball out of the spread-option.

They aren’t such different teams, other than in one place… Liberty struggles to stop the run, which gives the Gamecocks an edge to take advantage of to cover at home.

The Flames are 83rd in EPA per rush on defense and are giving up 4.2 per carry while Jacksonville State has been running for 214.7 per game on offense at 4.6 per pop. 

The Gamecocks are 12th in the country in rushing yards per game and tied for fifth with 16 rushing touchdowns this year. Running back Malik Jackson is 18th in the country in rushing yards (559) and quarterbacks Zion Webb and Logan Smothers have combined for another 426.

This might not be a game Jacksonville State wins, but with its hard-nosed defense and ability to run the ball, it can cover in a low-scoring affair.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Liberty vs Jacksonville State spread and Over/Under analysis

Most books opened with Liberty as 5.5 to 6-point road favorites in this battle for the top spot in the C-USA, and they haven’t budged. 

This season, the Flames are 4-1 against the spread, with last week’s 21-16 win against Sam Houston State being the first time they failed to cover. Rich Rod’s program has been similarly impressive ATS, going 4-1-1. His Gamecocks have twice covered, and won, as underdogs.

While both teams have a winning record ATS, they haven’t been reliable when betting the Over despite both programs averaging more than 30 points per game.

Chadwell’s team has gone 2-3 to the Over while hitting the Under in its last two games, only hitting the Over once when the total was above 50.

It’s been similar with the Gamecocks, who are 2-4 to the Over. They’ve hit it the last two weeks, but are just 1-4 when the total is above 50.

Liberty vs Jacksonville State betting trend to know

Jacksonville State has won five of its last six games (+4.25 units / 26% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Liberty vs Jacksonville State.

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