Kentucky and Vanderbilt meet Saturday in Nashville in an SEC matchup with bigger implications than the record books suggest.
The Wildcats are rooting for wins in their last two games to qualify for a bowl, while the Commodores hope a week off has them ready to chase a playoff spot with victories in their upcoming key matchups.
My Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt predictions and free college football picks for Saturday, November 22 see the Commodores posting a comfortable win.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt prediction
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt best bet: Vanderbilt -8.5 (-110)
I’ve enjoyed the second-half resurgence of the Kentucky Wildcats quite a bit as an alum and life-long fan. But I also know the schedule has played a role.
An anemic Auburn offense, and the final act of the Hugh Freeze saga, allowed the Wildcats to get a win in a game where they scored just 10 points.
Florida never got off the bus in Lexington, and Kentucky capitalized on numerous errors by DJ Lagway to get the easy win. And last week saw the Wildcats beat up on an FCS school.
But the Vanderbilt Commodores present the toughest challenge the Wildcats have faced since Tennessee. That Vols team torched this Kentucky secondary to the tune of nearly 400 passing yards and 56 points.
I’m not expecting anything near those numbers, but Diego Pavia has given the Wildcats fits before. He led Vandy into Lexington last season, exiting with a 20-13 win as he completed 15 of 18 throws and repeatedly moved the chains on third down with his legs.
His team needs him to put up his best performance of the season. The Commodores got a much-needed bye week, and at 8-2 they need to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Vandy ranks Top 15 in both EPA/rush and EPA/pass, ninth in points per quality drive, and fifth in late-down success. The Wildcat defense ranks 96th in pass success rate against, 111th in scrambling EPA, and 95th in quality drive rate allowed.
The Wildcats are improved, especially with Cutter Boley looking better every week at quarterback, but this is just a bad matchup against a highly motivated Vanderbilt team.
The Commodores are 5-1 ATS this season as favorites, and have covered three and pushed once in their last four. Those trends will continue here.
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Kentucky vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay
Kentucky’s defense ranked 132nd in scramble rate allowed and 111th in scramble EPA. Pavia ranks in the Top 15 nationally in scramble rate, and will likely need to make more plays with his legs given how well the Wildcats stop the inside run game.
Pavia rushed for 112 yards against Auburn, and is averaging 61.3 rush yards per game this season.
Junior Sherrill has racked up a third of his season receiving yards over the past two games, and is always a threat for a big play. With tight end Eli Stowers drawing the bulk of the attention in the pass game, Sherill’s total of 46.5 yards is quite appealing.
The Wildcats rank 95th in yards allowed after catch, 71st in EPA/dropback, and 92nd in average depth of target.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt 3-leg SGP
- Vanderbilt -8.5
- Diego Pavia Over 52.5 rushing yards
- Junior Sherrill Over 46.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Pavia breaks the plane
Pavia has rushed for a touchdown in six of his last seven games, scoring seven in total in that span. Kendrick Law should follow in the footsteps of other No. 1 receivers against this Vanderbilt defense. He’s elite at picking up yards after catch, an area where Vanderbilt’s defense ranks 79th
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt 5-leg SGP
- Vanderbilt -8.5
- Diego Pavia Over 52.5 rushing yards
- Junior Sherrill Over 46.5 receiving yards
- Diego Pavia anytime TD
- Kendrick Law Over 53.5 receiving yards
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt game predictions
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt moneyline prediction
The Wildcats are improved, but Vanderbilt knows it can’t lose this game and reach the playoffs. The Commodores will get the win at home.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt spread prediction
Vanderbilt to cover the number is my best bet, as I expect Diego Pavia to have himself a game.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Over/Under prediction
This number has moved north of 54 points and I’m worried it might have moved a bit too much. I lean Under here, but not by a lot.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt odds
- Spread: Kentucky +8.5 | Vanderbilt -8.5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +280 | Vanderbilt -350
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt trend to know
Vanderbilt has covered in 10 of its last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kentucky vs Vanderbilt.
How to watch Kentucky vs Vanderbilt
| Location | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, November 22, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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