Kansas vs UNLV Prediction: Guaranteed Rate Bowl Odds and Picks

One of the most exciting matchups of bowl season gets underway in Phoenix tonight as the No. 25 Kansas Jayhawks (8-4) square off with the UNLV Rebels (9-4) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

Both teams feature fun, unique, and potent offenses. Looking at the college football odds, it’s expected to be a high-scoring game with the total set at 64.5 and a 12.5-point spread in favor of the Big 12 representative.

I have my eyes set on the total as Brennan Marion’s prolific UNLV offense combines with Kansas’ top-10 offense in a game that could see some fireworks.

Read on as I dissect the latest bowl game odds and provide my college football picks and predictions for Kansas vs. UNLV on December 26.

Kansas vs UNLV best odds

Kansas vs UNLV picks and predictions

As is necessary during bowl season, let’s first do an accounting of transfer and opt-out absences. Luckily for this bowl, both teams currently don’t figure to have major losses and this game should be an absolute treat for viewers.

The Kansas Jayhawks will likely be without starting left tackle Dominick Puni, defensive lineman Gage Keys, and rotational wide receiver Tanaka Scott. Two more offensive linemen — Bryce Cabeldue and Michael Ford — are considered questionable after suffering late-season injuries. Puni, Ford, and Cabeldue were all full-time starters up front this season and their presence will be paramount.

As for the UNLV Rebels, rumors were swirling about quarterback Jordan Maiava earlier this month but those have since died down. Given the lack of recent chatter, the current expectation is that he will play. Safety Cameren Jenkins and Courtney Reese are the names to know in the portal, and the defensive back end could be hindered if Jett Elad doesn’t return from injury after missing the MWC title game.

Next, let’s take a look a closer look at both teams’ respective coaching staffs and team build.

The Jayhawks went 2-10 in Lance Leipold’s first season in 2021. To little surprise — Leipold has won at every stop in his career — they’ve improved drastically each season. After improving to 6-7 a year ago, Leipold’s team is currently 8-4 this year and is looking for a ninth win.

The Jayhawks were surgical offensively despite star quarterback Jalon Daniels being limited to just three early-season games due to a back injury. Track-speed dual-threat Jason Bean stepped in and averaged 9.8 yards per attempt through the air and 6.3 yards per attempt on the ground while leading an offense that averaged 33.6 points per game.

It’s truly amazing what this coaching staff pulled off sans Daniels, and it’s easy to see why offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki earned a promotion to Penn State. He won’t be on the sidelines for the Jayhawks for the bowl. Jim Zebrowski was promoted from quarterbacks coach to co-offensive coordinator and is the most likely play-caller as newly-hired Jeff Grimes likely won’t contribute this soon on the job.

Now for UNLV. The Rebels are 9-4, improving by four wins from a season ago in Barry Odom’s successful Year One. They played for the MWC Championship as one of the biggest surprises in the country led by offensive coordinator Brennan Marrion’s unique and devastatingly effective GoGo Offense, averaging 34.3 ppg on a superb 6.1 yards per play.

This marks the program’s first bowl game since 2013 and its best on-field performance since 1984. Only once before have the Rebels reached 10 wins, so Odom has a chance to make history and be named MWC Coach of the Year.

There are some similarities between these two teams in that they both have terrific coaching staffs and they both have visually appealing and effective offenses.

Kansas ranks fifth in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. It should have no issue gashing a UNLV defense that checks in at 103rd in EPA per play and gives up a ton of chunk yardage plays, ranking 111th in explosiveness.

Kansas is elite both on the ground (12th in EPA per rush) and through the air (second in EPA per pass). The Jayhawks will expose UNLV’s main weaknesses — the secondary (123rd in EPA per pass) and the defensive front (119th in stuff rate compared to 17th for Kansas on offense, 107th in front seven havoc compared to 35th for Kansas).

The Rebels weren’t tested much this year due to a weak schedule but allowed 37 points to San Jose State and 44 points to Boise State in the last two games of the year. Kansas brings more to the table than either of those teams.

On the flip side, it’d be surprising if UNLV doesn’t find the end zone in this game as well. Marion’s offense is truly something to behold and has been effective (37th in EPA per play). Kansas’ defense improved mightily from a year ago but is still exploitable, checking in at 80th in EPA per play and 112th in success rate.

The Jayhawks don’t stonewall rushing attacks (125th in stuff rate) unless they sell out for out, which is a problem as UNLV is second nationally with 37 rushing touchdowns and has an effective enough passing attack to beat the Jawhawks with star receiver Ricky White if there are too many bodies in the box and not back deep.

Give me the Over.

My best bet: Over 64.5 (-110 at bet365)

Writing may not reflect live odds.

Kansas vs UNLV same-game parlay

Over 64.5

UNLV +12.5

Kansas team total Over 38.5

+547 at FanDuel

Here’s a three-leg SGP centered around my best bet. The idea is that this will be a high-scoring game in which UNLV can keep pace and cover a large spread.

I’m not a huge fan of laying double-digit points come bowl season. There are too many uncertainties with motivation, star players getting less work than usual, and a host of other factors for me to feel confident enough in a side to expect a blowout. UNLV should be highly motivated for this contest and possess a terrific offense, so I’ll bet on the Rebels keeping pace.

The biggest mismatch of the game from a metrics perspective is the Kansas offense vs. the UNLV defense, so I’m using the Jayhawks’ team total Over of 38.5 as the final leg.

It’s a high number, but Kansas managed to be an efficient offense this season despite having an injured QB1. This Rebels defense has been beaten by pretty much every good offense it has faced and I see no reason why that’d change in this matchup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kansas vs UNLV spread and Over/Under analysis

UNLV has been one of the most profitable teams to support in the nation, boasting a 10-3 record against the spread this season. Kansas has also been slightly profitable at 7-5 ATS, but it pales in comparison to the money-making machine that Rebels football has been.

Marion’s offense has caught a lot of opposing teams — and bookmakers — off guard, going 8-4-1 O/U this year.

Freshman Jayden Maiava grabbed the reigns at quarterback and threw for 2,794 yards with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions on 8.8 yards per attempt while rushing for 261 yards and three scores. Three different ball carriers (Vincent Davis, Jai’Den Thomas, and Donavyn Lester) had between 455 and 722 rushing yards while combining for 28 touchdowns, so the loss of Reese won’t be felt too strongly.

As for Kansas, star running back Devin Neal hasn’t yet decided on the NFL Draft and is tentatively expected to play on Boxing Day, which is big news considering he has 1,423 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rebels have been gashed for 878 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground across the final three games of the year, so Neal and the rest of the Jayhawks should find success whether or not the offensive line is shorthanded.

This is a lot of points for me to lay in a game with two similar teams. Both sides should have offensive success which is why I like the Over the best, and this line of thinking has me preferring the underdog if playing the spread. The Rebels have played well in every game this year other than the MWC Championship game, so I’m not tossing them in the trash after one bad performance.

Kansas vs UNLV betting trend to know

UNLV finished the season with a 4-0-1 O/U stretch across its final five games. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas vs UNLV.

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