For six straight years, Kansas State couldn't string together back-to-back results in the same direction, flipping between Over and Under almost annually from 2013 through 2018.
Then came a run of three straight Overs, followed by a push, and now two straight misses as the number has climbed into the high 8s and 9s. The 2026 total opened at 7.5 but has since settled at 8.5.
Here's a look at the recent history of Kansas State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Wildcats will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5*:
Kansas State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 8.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 7.5** | 🟡 |
*Win total opened at 7.5.
**Pick made at previous win total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I like the Collin Klein hire. The Wildcats underachieved the last few years under former coach Chris Klieman. Quarterback Avery Johnson returns and they avoid Texas Tech, BYU and Utah in Big 12 play. This win total has been bet up from 7.5; I project them just above the old number.
Rob Paul
Chris Klieman's retirement turned into a win for Kansas State. Collin Klein, a former Heisman finalist and offensive coordinator for K-State before spending the last two seasons as Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator, is back in the Little Apple.
Klein has the juice as a play-caller, and his offense should get the most out of QB Avery Johnson, who has the talent to be one of the best dual-threats in the country. With Johnson behind an offensive line led by John Pastore and Joe Jackson and Garrett Oakley back, this offense can be one of the scariest in the Big 12.
The defense is a bigger question, but transfers like Wendell Gregory (Oklahoma State), Mekhi Mason (Louisiana Tech), and Koy Beasley (Miami (OH)) should help. Also helping is a schedule ranked No. 85 in SOS (.513).
Colby Marchio
Are we really still doing this with Avery Johnson? Seriously, are we?
Is this me wishing ill will on the kid? No, never. But everything I've seen over the last couple of years just doesn't instill much confidence in this team. Sure, he's improved his turnover issues, but I'm not convinced the leap everyone is expecting is actually coming. It might end up being more of a hop than a leap.
What does worry me is the schedule. They avoid BYU, Texas Tech, and Utah, which certainly gives them a path to eight wins. But if I don't believe Johnson is the right guy to lead this team, and I don't believe in the offense coming off a 6-6 season, I'll gladly take the under at plus money.
Kansas State win totals, odds and results (2011-25)
(Kansas State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.5 | -125 | +105 | 6 | Under |
| 2024 | 9.5 | +110 | -135 | 8 | Under |
| 2023 | 8 | -135 | +115 | 8 | Push |
| 2022 | 7 | -145 | +120 | 9 | Over |
| 2021 | 5.5 | -125 | +105 | 7 | Over |
| 2019 | 5.5 | +120 | -140 | 8 | Over |
| 2018 | 6.5 | -140 | +120 | 5 | Under |
| 2017 | 8 | -180 | +150 | 7 | Under |
| 2016 | 6 | +100 | -120 | 8 | Over |
| 2015 | 7 | -140 | +120 | 6 | Under |
| 2014 | 7.5 | -130 | +110 | 9 | Over |
| 2013 | 8 | +120 | -150 | 7 | Under |
| 2011 | 5.5 | -135 | +105 | 10 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- Coin-flip results: six Overs, six Unders, and a push across 13 graded seasons is as balanced as a dataset gets.
- A stretch defined by flip-flopping: from 2013 through 2018, Kansas State never went the same direction more than two years running, before finally stacking three straight Overs from 2019 through 2022.
- The number outran the team: after that peak, the total jumped to eight (push), then 9.5, then 8.5, and the Wildcats have missed each of the last two as the bar got harder to clear.
How Kansas State win totals are priced
Coming off back-to-back misses at increasingly high numbers, Kansas State looked like it would actually catch a break for 2026. The total opened at 7.5, and books favored the Over there at -175 against +144 on the Under. However, the win total has since jumped up to 8.5, with the Over priced at +125 and the Under at -150.
The Big 12 total sits at 5.5, with the Under favored at -125 against +105 on the Over, a split that suggests whatever confidence exists is coming more from the non-conference slate than from Big 12 play itself.
Kansas State has been a miserable betting option as a favorite, going just 5-14 ATS over the past two seasons combined.
Kansas State win total FAQs
Will Kansas State make the CFP?
Kansas State is priced at +750 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Kansas State's projected win total?
The Wildcats' win total sits at 8.5 for 2026, with the Over at +125 and the Under at -150.
Who is Kansas State's starting QB?
Avery Johnson is preparing for a third season as the Wildcats' top quarterback option. He racked up 2,385 passing yards and 18 touchdowns last year.
What's the best bet for Kansas State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the Wildcats UNDER is the stronger option even with the downward shift in the total.
