Back-to-back double-digit-adjacent seasons have put Iowa State in an odd spot heading into 2026.
The Cyclones cleared their win total in each of the last three years, riding an 8- and 10-win campaigns to close things out, yet the number for 2026 drops all the way to 4.5.
Here's a look at the recent history of Iowa State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Cyclones will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 4.5*:
Iowa State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 5.5** | 🟡 |
| Henry Annen | CycloneAlert (247Sports) | OVER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Alec Busse | CycloneAlert (247Sports) | UNDER 4.5 | 🟡 |
*Opened at 5.5 wins.
**Pick made at original win total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Iowa State has a new head coach and returns zero starters from last year. I project them to be underdogs in 10 games. I gave out under 5.5 wins earlier this off-season and still lean under even with the shift to 4.5.
Rob Paul
There are a lot of changes in Ames with Matt Campbell off to Penn State and athletic director Jamie Pollard set to retire in 2027. And only time will tell whether Pollard’s last major act as AD, hiring Jimmy Rogers to replace Campbell, will pay off.
However, it will be hard to judge the move after Rogers’ first season, given the roster attrition the Cyclones are dealing with in 2026.
Iowa State is No. 102 in returning production (45%) with only 13 total starts (spread across multiple players) from last year’s team returning this season. Rogers is relying heavily on Group of Six and FCS transfers this year, including at QB with Jalen Raynor, a three-year starter at Arkansas State.
It’s hard to have a lot of hope in a roster made up of nearly 50 new transfers from the 67th-ranked transfer portal class.
Colby Marchio
Anyone of worth from last year's team is in Happy Valley with Matt Campbell. I think this is going to be a tough rebuild for Jimmy Rogers, who comes over from Washington State.
I typically don't like backing a coach in his first full season at a new school. Sure, there are special cases in the new era of college football where a coach can make an immediate impact, but the situation Rogers is stepping into does not give me much confidence.
Next season should be a much better opportunity for him to start showing the direction this program is heading. For 2026, I am taking the under.
📰 Iowa State media win total predictions
Henry Annen, Iowa State staff writer, 247Sports
Iowa State enters Jimmy Rogers’ first season at the helm with question marks in nearly every key area. Bowling Green, West Virginia, Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF and Kansas State could all be viewed as winnable games, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Cyclones.
Alec Busse, Iowa State staff writer, 247Sports
I’m not very bullish on this Iowa State team entering the season. With about 80 new players, Iowa State has among the lowest continuity of any team in the country. The Cyclones rank No. 102 out of 138 teams in returning production entering the season. Among Big 12 teams, Iowa State ranks No. 14 in career snaps, ahead of K-State and Utah.
Come the end of November, I think the Cyclones profile as a 4–5-win team with their most winnable matchups being against SEMO, Bowling Green, West Virginia, Cincinnati, at Baylor, at UCF, and Kansas State. Beat the nonconference opponents and split the Big 12 games, and Iowa State would be a five-win team. Maybe the Cyclones spring a surprising upset and get to bowl eligibility. But, to me, a postseason bowl would be a great achievement.
I’ve written before that I think Iowa State’s goal this fall should be to set a strong, clear foundation for the future of Cyclone football under Rogers. I don’t think a bowl game is necessary to meet that standard, but I do think competing in most of the Cyclones’ games would indicate that a standard is being set.
Iowa State win totals, odds and results (2018-25)
(Iowa State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | +115 | -140 | 8 | Over |
| 2024 | 7.5 | -165 | +135 | 10 | Over |
| 2023 | 4.5 | -110 | -110 | 7 | Over |
| 2022 | 6.5 | -120 | +100 | 4 | Under |
| 2021 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | 7 | Under |
| 2019 | 8 | -110 | -110 | 7 | Under |
| 2018 | 6.5 | -120 | +100 | 8 | Over |
Historical wins reflect regular season only.
🔑 Key takeaways
- An almost even split: Iowa State's all-time record in this dataset sits at 4-3 in favor of the Over across seven graded seasons.
- A rough stretch gave way to a strong one: the Cyclones went Under in three straight graded seasons between 2019 and 2022, then reeled off three consecutive Overs from 2023 through 2025.
- The number found a groove, then jumped off it: 7.5 held steady across 2024 and 2025, the first repeat total in this dataset, before the 2026 number was cut sharply to 4.5 (exactly where it sat three years ago).
How Iowa State win totals are priced
There's a real disconnect at play here. Iowa State is coming off consecutive winning seasons that both cleared 7.5, yet the 2026 total drops more than three full wins to 4.5. The Under sits at +115 and the Over at -136.
The Big 12 win total is set at 3.5, with the Under favored at -150 against +125 on the Over. Whatever pushed the number down this far, the market clearly isn't expecting the recent run to continue.
Iowa State's win total landed on 7.5 in back-to-back seasons, 2024 and 2025, the only time in this dataset the number has repeated in consecutive years.
Iowa State win total FAQs
Will Iowa State make the CFP?
Iowa State is priced at +7000 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Iowa State's projected win total?
The Cyclones' win total sits at 4.5 for 2026, with the Over at -136 and the Under at +115.
Who is Iowa State's starting QB?
Jaylen Raynor brings the heat to Iowa State following three seasons with Arkansas State. He threw for 3,361 yards and 19 TDs in 2025.
What's the best bet for Iowa State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, bettors should lock in the UNDER on the Cyclones' win total, even with the drop to 4.5.
