It can't possibly get any worse for the Oklahoma State Cowboys than what transpired during a dismal one-win 2025 season.
But while the bar is barely above the floor for this once-proud football program, expectations are considerably higher with the addition of head coach Eric Morris and star quarterback Drew Mestemaker. Oddsmakers like what they see so far – and bettors have followed suit, forcing a bump in the team's preseason win total.
Here's a look at the recent history of Oklahoma State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Cowboys will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 6.5*:
Oklahoma State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 6.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 5.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 5.5 | 🟢 |
*Win total opened at 5.5.
*Picks made on original win total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I’ve upgraded Oklahoma State’s power rating more than any team ever in my preseason ratings. With new head coach Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker, I think Oklahoma State goes from 1-11 to a bowl. However, this win total has been bet up from 5.5. And my projection doesn't quite get them there.
Rob Paul
The Pokes should be known as the Oklahoma State Mean Green this season with how much talent new head coach Eric Morris brought with him from last year’s 12-2 North Texas team. That team had the best offense in the country, and the three most important players from it - Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young - are now in Stillwater.
Those aren’t the only three new additions at Oklahoma State, either, with more than 50 transfers coming in from a class ranked 15th-best in the country. The Cowboys added several more receivers to complement Young, an entirely new offensive line led by North Texas transfer Braydon Nelson, and several key defenders, including Ethan Wesloski and Saadiq Clements from last year’s Mean Green team.
It’s a lot of newness, but Mestemaker is among the best QBs in the country, and the schedule isn’t bad; it’s No. 74 in SOS (.523).
Colby Marchio
I do not love the price, but six wins feels very doable for this veteran team. Sure, they are coming off a 1-11 season, but they also had three close losses a year ago that could have easily changed the outlook.
Now, with Eric Morris coming over from North Texas, where he went 22-16 over the last three seasons and led the No. 1 scoring offense in the country a year ago, there is plenty of reason for optimism. Morris brought in a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, adding over 50 transfers this offseason.
If this group can gel and adapt to the new culture being built in Stillwater, I think this team should be eyeing a bowl game come November.
Oklahoma State win totals, odds and results (2009-25)
(Oklahoma State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5 | +140 | -170 | 1 | Under |
| 2024 | 8.5 | +110 | -135 | 3 | Under |
| 2023 | 6.5 | -110 | -110 | 9 | Over |
| 2022 | 8.5 | +105 | -125 | 7 | Under |
| 2021 | 7.5 | -110 | -110 | 11 | Over |
| 2019 | 7.5 | +100 | -120 | 8 | Over |
| 2018 | 8 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2017 | 9 | +100 | -120 | 9 | Push |
| 2016 | 8 | -130 | +110 | 9 | Over |
| 2015 | 8 | -110 | -110 | 10 | Over |
| 2013 | 9.5 | -115 | -115 | 10 | Over |
| 2012 | 8.5 | -135 | +105 | 7 | Under |
| 2011 | 8.5 | -110 | -120 | 11 | Over |
| 2010 | 6 | -115 | -115 | 10 | Over |
| 2009 | 9 | +110 | -140 | 9 | Push |
🔑 Key takeaways
- Back-to-back brutality: Few teams in the country have had a worse two-year span than the Cowboys, especially when measured against preseason expectations. The Cowboys enter 2026 with just four wins in their past two seasons combined, falling short of their win totals by an average of five victories per season.
- An impressive profile overall: Despite its recent struggles, the Oklahoma State football program has actually been one of the more dependable Over options in the Big 12. It boasts an 8-5-2 O/U record overall in graded seasons since 2009, buoyed by a 5-1 stretch from 2010-16 in which it earned 10+ wins four times.
- First time for everything: This is the only stretch in Sports Odds History's record keeping that the Cowboys have had win totals below 7 in back-to-back seasons; Oklahoma State is 2-1 O/U in three previous instances of a preseason win total lower than 7.
How Oklahoma State win totals are priced
Bettors who snagged the O5.5 in the early going have to be thrilled with the CLV they'll get. If you want that play now, you're getting -192 (with the Under at +160).
More intriguing is the O6.5, which pays out at +105 (with the Under at -125). A six-win leap is a lot to ask of any program, but optimism abounds in Stillwater with the arrival of Morris and an army of fresh faces.
OSU won zero conference games last season but is expected to improve dramatically in that regard, with the O3.5 Big 12 victories at -160 and the Under at +134.
The Cowboys have just one cover in seven games against ranked opponents over the past two seasons.
Oklahoma State win total FAQs
Will Oklahoma State make the CFP?
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The Cowboys remain a +2000 longshot to reach the College Football Playoff despite a new-look roster and coaching staff.
What is Oklahoma State's projected win total?
Oklahoma State has had its 2026 win total raised from 5.5 to 6.5, with the Over at +105 and the Under at -125.
Who is Oklahoma State's starting QB?
North Texas transfer Drew Mestemaker is the QB1 for the Cowboys in 2026. He threw for 4,379 yards and 34 TDs for the Mean Green last year.
What is the most notable Oklahoma State win total trend?
Oklahoma State's Over on its win total has landed at plus money in six of the last nine seasons (including this one).
What's the best bet for Oklahoma State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER on the Cowboys' win total is the superior play this year.
