It’s a battle of the Sun Belt’s most prolific scoring team against the conference’s best defense, as the Texas State Bobcats host the James Madison Dukes.
James Madison is on a tear, as the Dukes have ripped off five straight wins, most in blowout fashion. They are pegged as 6.5-point road favorites against Texas State, which has dropped three in a row.
Our James Madison vs Texas State predictions and free college football picks have the visitors taking care of business on Tuesday, October 28.
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James Madison vs Texas State prediction
James Madison vs Texas State best bet: James Madison -6.5 (-115)
The James Madison Dukes are coming off a 63-27 demolition of Old Dominion, which moved them to a perfect 4-0 in Sun Belt play heading into their bye week.
Since losing to Louisville in Week 2, the Dukes have been inflicting hurt on the opposition, averaging 33.4 points per game during a five-game fun run, winning by double digits in four.
They’re now Top 4 in the Sun Belt in scoring, putting up 32.3 points per game, powered by a dominant rushing attack that churns out 243.7 yards per game, which ranks eighth in the nation.
But that’s just half the story with the Dukes. They are the Sun Belt’s top defensive team, too, allowing a league-best 15.6 points per game, nearly nine points clear of the next closest competitor.
They rank first in yards allowed via both the rush (74.3) and pass (162.7).
By offensive reputation alone, the Texas State Bobcats should hang with the Dukes. They are the Sun Belt’s leading scorers, averaging a whopping 36.1 points per contest, and rank Top 2 in both rushing (230.7) and passing (257.1) yards per game.
Unfortunately, Texas State doesn’t have a defense that can hold up. That’s been especially true during a three-game losing streak, where the Bobcats have allowed an average of 39.7 points per game.
In fact, the Bobcats are a rough 0-5-0 record against the spread in their last five.
James Madison is a solid 4-2-0 against the spread as a betting favorite this year, and should improve that record on Tuesday.
James Madison vs Texas State same-game parlay
We’ll shape our 3-legged SGP around two potent running backs. Wayne Knight leads the Dukes in rushing with 611 yards and five touchdowns.
He was somewhat contained against Old Dominion, rushing for just 74 yards on 12 carries. That’s a low from the previous four weeks, where Knight ran for at least 83 yards.
TXST allows 162.7 rush yards per contest, so look for Knight to be productive.
We’ll also predict a score for Bobcats running back Lincoln Pare, who has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games.
James Madison has only allowed two rushing scores all season, but Pare, like he has for much of the year, should break through the Dukes defense for at least one major.
James Madison vs Texas State SGP
- James Madison -6.5
- Wayne Knight Over 67.5 rush yards
- Lincoln Pare anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Put up your Dukes
Landon Ellis should be heavily involved. After failing to crack 40 yards receiving in four of the first five games, he’s had big games against Louisiana (120 yards) and Old Dominion (97 yards), tying a season high of six grabs in each.
James Madison vs Texas State SGP
- James Madison -6.5
- Wayne Knight Over 67.5 rush yards
- Lincoln Pare anytime touchdown
- Landon Ellis Over 54.5 receiving yards
James Madison vs Texas State odds
- Spread: James Madison -6.5 (-115) | Texas State +6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: James Madison -235 | Texas State +194
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-105) | Under 57.5 (-115)
James Madison vs Texas State trend to know
The Dukes are 5-2-0 against the spread this season. Find more college football betting trends for James Madison vs Texas State.
How to watch James Madison vs Texas State
| Location | UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, October 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
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