The Big 12 Conference is in the house, and we have a fantastic matchup between two teams with identical 1-0 conference records when Iowa State visits No. 14-ranked Oklahoma.
The Cyclones are coming off a 34-27 home victory over Oklahoma State, while the Sooners improved their record to 4-0 with a 20-6 away victory over Cincinnati.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma best odds
Iowa State vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
In recent clashes between the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners, this series has been defined by strong defenses. The Under is 3-0 over their last three matchups and Saturday’s game shouldn’t buck that trend at all because these defenses crack.
Iowa State brings the conference’s third-best scoring and top-ranked total defense into this battle with Oklahoma. The Cyclones haven’t allowed 300+ passing yards in any single game since 2019 and allow 177 passing yards per contest this season.
The Cyclones defense has five interceptions and sophomore defensive back Jeremiah Cooper leads the nation with three interceptions. Iowa State has 29 QB hurries with one sack, and opponents average eight second-half points and 146 yards of offense per contest.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel has thrown 107 TD passes since 2019. Of his 14 TD passes this season, 12 have been to wide receivers, and he has three wideouts with over 200 receiving yards each. RB Tawee Walker leads a Sooners backfield with three backs with over 100 rushing yards behind an offensive line, allowing one sack per game.
Oklahoma has a good defensive unit of its own. Its 34 total points allowed is the best start the Sooners have had since 1992, and they bring the No. 2 scoring defense with the eighth-most takeaways in the country. They’ve allowed just one touchdown in two of their 16 quarters and blocked a punt that led to a TD against SMU.
The Sooners defense has allowed just one offensive play of over 40 yards and just four plays of over 30 yards. Linebacker Danny Stutsman leads the defense in tackles and spearheads a defensive group with seven sacks, eight picks, and 13 passes defended through their first four matchups.
Cyclones freshman QB Rocco Becht has thrown a TD pass in each of his first four starts and works behind an offensive line allowing just one sack this season. Junior wideout Jaylin Noel leads a receivers' room with four bodies catching at least 100 yards worth of passes. RB Cartevious Norton does most of the heavy lifting out of the backfield for the pass-heavy Iowa State offense. Punter Tyler Perkins slams the door with 13 of his 27 kicks landing inside the 20-yard line and 12 punts of over 50 yards.
Finally, this will be a defensive battle in Norman on Saturday night. The Cyclones defense will face a heavy test from Gabriel, but they can hold their own and haven’t allowed over 300 passing yards in any single game since 2019. The Sooners defense will face a freshman QB making his first start at Memorial Stadium, where Oklahoma is 17-1 over its last 18 home games.
My best bet: Under 48.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Iowa State vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
In addition to the game total Under, I'm grabbing the Sooners moneyline. While I know it’s juicy, Oklahoma will win this game, and getting even money on an SGP is never bad.
I laid that much juice because I’m unsure if either team will cover, but the Sooners rarely lose at Memorial Stadium. They are 17-1 over their past 18 and have won 17 of their past 18 night games at home. Oklahoma holds a 79-7-2 record over Iowa State, and that trend should continue Saturday night in Norman.
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Iowa State vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis
Carteviois Norton left last week’s game against Oklahoma State but is expected to dress and play on Saturday. Without Norton, the Cyclones rushed for 74 yards on 34 carries, and we could see Iowa State attempt to establish the run behind its lead back, assuming health.
Iowa State placekicker Chase Contreraz has five field goals of over 40 yards, including a 56-yard bomb against Northern Iowa. He also legged one from 51 yards against the Cowboys and is 9-9 on his PAT attempts.
The Cyclones are 2-3 against the spread over their past five meetings with the Sooners and are 2-2 ATS this season.
Oklahoma has dominated its opponents thus far. The Sooners have led their opponents for 217:40 of the 240 minutes played, which is why they are 4-0 ATS this season.
The Sooners have converted 31 of 53 third downs, good for the nation's fourth-best percentage (58.5) out of 130 teams. Conversely, Oklahoma opponents convert just 17 of their 61 combined third-down attempts.
Oklahoma has the fourth-best turnover margin (+1.8) in FBS with 10 takeaways, but they have committed three turnovers.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Cyclones' last seven road games, and Oklahoma is 17-1 SU over their past 18 home games. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Oklahoma.
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Iowa State vs Oklahoma game info
|Location:||Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK|
|Date:||Saturday, September 30, 2023|
|Kickoff:||7:00 p.m. ET|
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