Can we get a little stability in Houston this year?
Nine wins in 2025 marked the Cougars' best season since joining the Big 12, and it capped off a stretch that's swung wildly from year to year. The number climbs to 8.5 for 2026, but oddsmakers aren't fully buying a repeat, leaning Under at the new total.
Here's a look at the recent history of Houston win totals, along with predictions on whether the Cougars will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5*:
Houston 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 8.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 7.5** | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
*Win total opened at 7.5.
*Pick made on original total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I think head coach Willie Fritz is the most underrated coach in the country. The Cougars quietly won 10 games last year and rank high in returning experience. My ratings have them favored in nine games. This win total was bet up from 7.5. My projections have them somewhere in the middle.
Rob Paul
All Willie Fritz does is win. After a 9-3 regular season last year, Fritz’s team is poised to have a similarly impressive season this year. The Cougars have one of the easiest schedules in the country - No. 134 in SOS (.436) - and they’re top 20 in returning production (65%).
Not only is starting QB Conner Weigman back, but Fritz also brings in five-star freshman Keisean Henderson to back him up. The offense returns star wide receiver Amare Thomas and adds plenty of transfer portal talent, too, including Shadre Hurst and Makhi Hughes, both of whom starred for Fritz at Tulane.
And the defense reloaded in the transfer portal with major pickups in Ashton Porter (Oregon), Jalen Mayo (Stephen F. Austin), and Javion White (Tulane). Those three join Khalil Laufau, Will James, and Kentrell Webb on one of the Big 12’s most underrated defenses.
Colby Marchio
With how chaotic the Big 12 can be, I think leaning into Houston having a chance to break out even bigger than they did in 2025, when they finished 10-3, is worth the risk at plus money.
They return Conner Weigman, who had a very successful season last year, but they do have some major holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. That said, they still bring back Will James, who earned Second Team All Big 12 honors last season, along with Khalil Laufau.
Having to travel to Utah and Texas Tech will be a major challenge, and getting even one win from those matchups will be a tall task. However, facing the Red Raiders early in the season could benefit Houston, as getting that experience against one of the best teams in the country and conference could help prepare them for the rest of the schedule.
Houston win totals, odds and results (2016-25)
(Houston historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.5 | +110 | -135 | 9 | Over |
| 2024 | 3.5 | -140 | +115 | 4 | Over |
| 2023 | 4.5 | -135 | +115 | 4 | Under |
| 2022 | 9.5 | +140 | -165 | 7 | Under |
| 2021 | 8.5 | -105 | -115 | 11 | Over |
| 2019 | 7.5 | +100 | -120 | 4 | Under |
| 2016 | 9 | -150 | +130 | 9 | Push |
🔑 Key takeaways
- Dead even, push included: three Overs, three Unders, and a push in seven graded seasons. Nothing here points strongly in either direction.
- Two straight misses turned into two straight hits: Houston went Under in both 2022 and 2023, then flipped the script with Overs in 2024 and 2025.
- Feast or famine by number: the win total itself has bounced from a low of 3.5 to a high of 9.5 across this span, rarely settling anywhere in between for long.
How Houston win totals are priced
A nine-win 2025 pushed Houston's number up to 8.5 for 2026, matching the third-highest total the program has faced in this dataset. Books aren't chasing last year's breakout, though. The Under is favored at -156 against +130 on the Over, a sign the market expects some pullback even after the Cougars' best year in the Big 12 to date.
Conference play tells the same story. Houston's Big 12 win total sits at 5.5, and the Under is favored there too, at -136 against +115 on the Over. Whatever optimism exists around this program right now, it isn't showing up in the pricing.
The Cougars are 15-8-1 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2021 season.
Houston win total FAQs
Will Houston make the CFP?
Houston is priced at +850 to make the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is Houston's projected win total?
The Cougars' win total sits at 8.5 for 2026, with the Over at +130 and the Under at -156.
Who is Houston's starting QB?
Conner Weigman enters his second season as the Cougars' QB1. He threw for 2,705 yards and 25 TDs after transferring from Texas A&M prior to last season.
What's the best bet for Houston this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER is the stronger play on the Cougars' win total.
