Pondering this week’s biggest Big Ten matchup is made more difficult by the early schedule rolled through by the Indiana Hoosiers. How much can possibly be known about a team that has beaten Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State, even if each by multiple possessions?
More is known about the Illinois Fighting Illini, but perhaps some of that knowledge is less positive than it seems on the surface.
My Illinois vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks have a touch of doubt in the road underdogs on Saturday, September 20.
Illinois vs Indiana predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Illinois vs Indiana spread pick: Indiana -5.5
We have seen the Illinois Fighting Illini's flaws, even if the final score was a 45-19 win at Duke. Under the surface, the Blue Devils succeeded on more plays, held Illinois in check on the ground, and created havoc at a rate that could have flipped the script to a Duke blowout.
Instead, of course, the Blue Devils coughed up five turnovers.
But focus on what Duke was able to do, and Illinois' holes become clear. Allowing 18 defensive havoc plays on just 73 snaps is a worrying rate. The Illini offense may not be up to the task of an efficient evening.
And it will need to be an efficient evening against the Indiana Hoosiers.
No matter who the opponents were, Fernando Mendoza completing 72.4% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and no interceptions is the kind of stat line that should assure success against Illinois, too.
Early Illinois vs Indiana total pick: Under 52.5
First of all, this total moving up three points from its opening number of 49.5 is a pretty quick argument in favor of Indiana covering the spread. The Hoosiers are the more offensive-minded of these teams, though both are more balanced than they are typically given credit for. Raising the total suggests Indiana will dictate the game flow.
But second of all, 51 is a massively key number in college football totals betting. To a lesser extent, 52 is also a key number. This total crossing through both raises an eyebrow.
And that is the primary logic to this Under.
Then also recognize that Indiana’s only competitive game this season fell short of its total by 12 points; as head coach Curt Cignetti said Monday, “Old Dominion turned out to be a pretty decent team, didn’t it?”
And the Hoosiers went Under the totals against two of the three best teams it faced last season, also short of its team total in that one exception, at Ohio State.
Illinois vs Indiana odds
- Illinois vs. Indiana spread: Indiana -5.5
- Illinois vs. Indiana moneyline: Illinois +168, Indiana -205
- Illinois vs. Indiana Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Illinois vs Indiana
- Illinois vs. Indiana matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Bloomington, IN
- Venue: Memorial Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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