Houston vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cougars Run Game Falters

Saturday afternoon will provide a preview of what will soon become an annual Lone Star State rivalry, as the 25th-ranked Houston Cougars — soon to be part of the Big XI — travel to Lubbock for a meeting with the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Both teams are seeking a 2-0 start to their season, although the manner in which they each picked up their first victory was vastly different. 

The scoreboard operator should be quite busy in this contest, and it’s shaping up to be one of the more entertaining matchups of the weekend. Let’s break down the betting angles in our Houston vs Texas Tech college football betting picks and predictions.

Houston vs Texas Tech best odds

Houston vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

The Cougars were fortunate to escape Week 1 with a victory, requiring three overtimes to eke out a two-point victory over UTSA. Quarterback Clayton Tune converted his team’s two-point conversion with a leaping 13-yard scamper, and the defense held on to their series to claim victory. Tune was solid on the day, throwing for over 200 yards and three touchdowns while tacking on 51 more and a score on the ground. 

Texas Tech rolled to a much easier Week 1 win, but its 63-10 victory over Murray State was not without a bit of pain. Starting QB Tyler Shough went down with an injury after throwing for 154 yards and a touchdown on just six completions. Backup Donovan Smith looked outstanding in relief, completing 14 of 16 attempts for 221 yards and four scores, with no turnovers. Receivers Loic Fouonji and Jerand Bradley combined to catch 10 passes for 218 yards and four of its five touchdowns.

Neither defense performed well against the pass last weekend, as the Red Raiders allowed 208 yards on just nine completed passes, with two of them going for more than 50 yards. Meanwhile, Houston allowed UTSA QB Frank Harris to throw for 337 yards and three touchdowns on 28 of 43 passing. 

That’s why, for me, it comes down to which offense looked to be more consistent in their opening weekend. Texas Tech was a fluid machine, switching quarterbacks and not missing a single beat. It didn’t run the ball much, but its two-headed monster of Tahj Brooks and SaRodorick Thompson gained 98 yards and three touchdowns on just 13 carries. Conversely, Houston struggled to run the ball, with Tune and running back Brandon Campbell gaining just 100 yards on 30 carries.

UTSA outgained Houston by nearly 100 yards last weekend, and Texas Tech’s offense is even better than the Roadrunners unit that posted 441 yards. While I don’t expect Tech to blow Houston out the way it did last year in a 17-point victory, I fully expect it to cover the number against its rivals in front of a raucous home crowd. The spread, which opened at -2.5 and has moved to -3.5 at most books, is still just -2.5 at FanDuel, and I’ll gladly jump on that bet this weekend. 

My best bet: Texas Tech -2.5 (-124 at FanDuel)

Houston vs Texas Tech betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Houston’s defense will be much better than the one Texas Tech faced a week ago, but Smith showed last season in relief during Shough’s injury that he can do just fine against better opposition. The Cougars will need to find a way to get pressure on him, but even with four sacks, that didn’t help them a whole lot against UTSA. That, and their running game effectiveness, could be the main turning point in who wins this game outright.

Texas Tech has been a juggernaut when playing teams outside of the Big XI at home. It has lost just one of its last 41 home games against non-conference foes, with 15 straight victories. It's also won four straight contests against the Cougars, and nine of the last 10 meetings. 

Overall, Houston has been on a roll, winning 13 of its last 14 games outright. It has also won seven of eight on the road in that span. However, it has won just once in its last six games against Big XI opponents. The Red Raiders have won four of their last five games against AAC teams, but have lost five of their last nine games outright. 

Texas Tech opened as strong moneyline favorites at every book but Caesars and FanDuel, with the latter strangely posting them as underdogs before the public quickly jumped on the line. FanDuel’s current line is still by far the best for those wanting to get Texas Tech moneyline. 

Over/Under analysis

The Cougars returns just two starters from their offensive line a year ago, and they clearly struggled to run the ball without Alton McCaskill last weekend. They gave it a real go, but if they’re unable to run the ball this weekend, Texas Tech’s offense could quickly put them into a position where they have to abandon it and become one-dimensional. Both teams also like to get the ball out quickly into the hands of their receivers, so both teams will need to tackle better than they did in Week 1 if the total is to stay Under.

If that happens, it would help those betting the Over quite a bit. The total opened at most books between 62.5 and 64.5 at most books — although for some odd reason, FanDuel’s total was nearly 10 points less than that and quickly got bet up. It’s since gone up to about 66 before coming back down to 62.5 across the board. Last year’s 38-21 contest failed to reach that total, as have four of the last five meetings — all of which also went Under. 

Houston vs Texas Tech game info

• Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX Sports 1

Houston vs Texas Tech key injuries

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Houston vs Texas Tech weather

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Houston vs Texas Tech betting trend to know

Texas Tech is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games against Houston. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Texas Tech.

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