We haven’t heard much from the Florida State Seminoles since their impressive season-opening win over the Alabama Crimson Tide.
To be fair, the Seminoles have taken care of business against some lesser opponents, but could they get caught looking past an underrated Virginia Cavaliers team with Miami on deck next week?
I’ve cooked up an SGP that has the Hoos keeping this one close, and for more college football picks for this ACC clash, check out my Florida State vs. Virginia predictions on Friday, September 26.
Our best Florida State vs Virginia SGP for Week 5
The Virginia Cavaliers look like a well-rounded team, but QB Chandler Morris leads this group. He’s thrown for 1,050 yards with eight touchdowns and just one interception. That passing attack has the Cavs ranked 26th in offensive success rate.
That has me looking at WR Trell Harris Over 54.5 receiving yards. Harris has become Morris’ favorite target, catching 18 balls for 321 yards and three scores.
Florida State allowed Alabama wideout Germie Bernard to go for 146 yards on eight catches. And while they held Ryan Williams to 30, that number is probably much higher if not for a case of the drops. As a result, the Seminoles rank a middling 52nd in opponent EPA per dropback.
Meanwhile, FSU and QB Tommy Castellanos have thrived in Gus Malzahn’s run-heavy offense. The Seminoles have the fourth-highest run-play percentage so far this season, and Castellanos has rushed 27 times for 139 yards and three scores.
Virginia’s defense is solid, but we saw it give up 44 yards to NC State QB CJ Bailey back in Week 2. Castellanos should clear this number for the third time in four games.
So, with Florida State’s propensity for running the football and the potential for looking past Virginia here, this game could be closer than casual college football fans might realize, and I like taking the points with the home team.
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