Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina Prediction: Birmingham Bowl Odds and Picks

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers hope the return of quarterback Grayson McCall will help them avoid their first three-game skid since 2019 when they square off against the East Carolina Pirates in the Birmingham Bowl this evening.

Coastal Carolina will be without head coach Jamey Chadwell after he took the job at Liberty, but McCall has stated he will play in the bowl despite entering the transfer portal.

For the Pirates, the bowl presents an opportunity for them to end an up-and-down season on a high note. ECU went 7-5 but three of its defeats came by three points or less, turning what could’ve been an outstanding campaign into merely an average one.

Can McCall ride off with one final win for the Chanticleers fans, or will ECU pick up its first bowl win in almost a decade? We discuss that and more in our Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina college football betting picks and predictions on Tuesday, December 27. 

Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina best odds

Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina picks and predictions

What happens when you get two offenses capable of big, explosive plays facing off against two defenses that struggle to stop big, explosive plays? Typically you’re going to get a lot of points, and that’s exactly what we have in this matchup.

ECU ranks 20th in the country in yards per play with 6.3 gained per snap, and away from home, that number rises to 6.8 yards per play. The Pirates’ 203 plays of 10 or more yards from scrimmage rank 21st in the country, and they rank 23rd in the nation with plays of 20 or more yards, doing so with balance —  ranking in the Top 36 teams in both run plays and pass plays of 10 or more yards.

While Coastal Carolina hasn’t racked up as many chunk plays, the Chanticleers are able to hit big passes downfield behind the arm of McCall. Their 30 pass plays of 25 or more yards rank 25th in the nation, and their eight 50-plus yard completions rank 31st in college football. Their 8.8 yards per pass is the seventh-best mark in the country, and their 6.0 yards per play overall rank 32nd in college football.

Defensively, that’s bad news for everyone involved. ECU’s pass defense has been abysmal at times this season. No team in the American allowed more than its nearly 3,600 passing yards, and its 97th-ranked sack rate has done it no favors in forcing mistakes. It's allowing 8.8 yards per pass play, and its completion percentage against and yards allowed per game are among the worst in the country.

Not that Coastal Carolina’s done much better. Opponents are gaining nine yards per pass against the Chanticleer’s defense, and 266.5 yards passing per game. That’s despite actually having a solid pass rush, with a sack on one of every 11 pass plays. In their last two games, against James Madison and Troy, they allowed a combined 92 points and 913 yards of total offense.

Coastal Carolina will also face a home-run threat in ECU running back Keaton Mitchell, who posted 222 yards on 27 carries with three touchdowns in their season-finale against Temple while adding 78 yards and a score on two catches. He’s averaging a staggering 8.18 yards per carry in his last four games.

That’s why I love the Over in this game. While I’m a bit concerned about the low success rate of both offenses in the red zone — both average less than 82% inside the 20 — I’m not sure it will matter in this game. These two teams can break off big plays on any snap, especially with McCall and ECU quarterback Holten Ahlers leading the way. 

Ahlers is a senior playing in his final game, and McCall has stated he wants to “finish what he started” and go out with a strong performance. Given the porous defenses they’re going to face, I fully expect both of them to put on one hell of an offensive show on Tuesday. 

My best bet: Over 62 (-110 at Caesars)

Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina spread analysis

ECU opened as a touchdown favorite, and when McCall posted his statement about entering the transfer portal, the line quickly moved to a two-touchdown spread. However, once people realized the final sentence of his statement indicated he would be playing in the bowl game, the market quickly adjusted itself. 

McCall’s injury should be behind him, but will that be enough to topple ECU? He wasn’t particularly great against Troy in the Sun Belt Championship game, despite throwing for 319 yards and three TDs.

Two of those scores came in the fourth quarter when the Chanticleers were already down 45-13. While they may not win, the spread is enticing: Coastal Carolina has covered as the underdog in eight of its last 10 games. 

ECU has covered the spread in each of its last four games out of conference, and three of its five losses have come by a field goal or less. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the spread in its last four December games and has covered just once in its last nine games following an ATS defeat. That said, it's covered the spread as the favorite in 15 of its last 18 games. 

It’s also important to note Coastal Carolina will be without its head coach, who has taken the open job at Liberty. Tim Beck has been hired as the new head coach, but defensive coordinator Chad Staggs will be at the helm for the bowl game.

Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina Over/Under analysis

We’ve already given out the Over as our best bet, but there are still a few things to look at with the total. Coastal Carolina’s last four games played in December have all gone Over their total. In addition, the Over is 7-1 in the last eight games ECU has played on turf. The Over is also 4-2 in Coastal Carolina’s last six games, while ECU has shown no overall total trend, splitting its 12 games this year.

One other sneaky play could be the first half Over. These two teams are scoring a combined 30.3 points prior to halftime this season, and allowing a combined 30.2 points. While the half lines are not yet out for most books, I’d keep an eye on when they are released and try to find some extra value. Bet365 has the first-half total at 30.5 which is about right, but anything lower I would jump on quickly. 

Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina betting trend to know

ECU has covered the spread in 15 of its last 18 games when favored. Find more NCAA betting trends for Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina.

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