The Big 12 Championship Game looks like an opportunity for the Texas Tech Red Raiders to show that they are the class of the conference.
And I’m betting they do just that.
My BYU vs. Texas Tech predictions break down how the Red Raiders' defense will suffocate Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars' offense, leading Texas Tech to a conference title on Saturday, December 6.
Our best BYU vs Texas Tech SGP for Big 12 Championship
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have risen up the rankings thanks to one of the best defenses in the country. Led by defensive end David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, the Red Raiders lead the nation in opponent EPA per play and are third in defensive success rate.
The BYU Cougars have been a great story this season with freshman QB Bear Bachmeier, but back on November 8, it was the first time this season that he looked like a freshman.
The Red Raiders' awesome defensive front just overpowered the Cougars' offensive line in a 29-7 win. But that final score could have easily been 49-7. The Texas Tech offense stalled in the red zone a few times, settling for five field goals.
I’m not expecting BYU's offensive opportunities to suddenly improve with a venue change, especially since the change isn’t to Provo. Neither do oddsmakers, who set this spread at nearly two touchdowns.
Texas Tech's national championship-level defense gets the job done here, allowing the Red Raiders to win and cover this spread.
Now, they only sacked Bachmeier once in that game, but they consistently collapsed the pocket to the point where there weren’t even holes for him to escape, and he ended up with just 12 rushing yards.
BYU needs Bachmeier upright in this game to have a chance. That means getting the ball out quickly and not taking big hits. Plus, an extra sack or two could really crush his rushing prop, which sits at 30.5.
Meanwhile, if the Red Raiders want to convert some more of those red zone opportunities, they should keep looking at wideout Caleb Douglas.
Douglas is cooking right now, 25 receptions for 409 yards over his last five games, finding the endzone six times, including in the last matchup against BYU. Adding him to score another TD here looks like a good bet.
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