The MAC Championship game is essentially set, but the Miami (OH) RedHawks can officially stamp their ticket to Detroit with a win against the Buffalo Bulls on home soil tonight. College football odds sure expect that to happen with Chuck Martin’s program favored by 8.5 against a Bulls squad that’s struggled to play up to its potential.
The RedHawks are on pace to finish with their most wins since 2010 despite losing starting quarterback Brett Gabbert earlier in the season. Thanks to a physical running game and a suffocating defense Miami (OH) has been able to keep it together and should be in for their ninth win of the year in a low-scoring slugfest.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks for Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) on Wednesday, November 15.
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) best odds
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) picks and predictions
While the total is only 39.5 for this game, the Under is always in play on MACtion weeknight, especially when neither team is much of a threat to throw the ball and both play strong defense.
Losing Gabbert — and his 59 career touchdown passes — essentially zapped the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks passing game. Backup quarterback Aveon Smith has thrown just 35 passes for 176 yards across parts of the last three games.
Taking the passing game away from an already struggling offense has turned the RedHawks into a complete ball-control team that relies on a strong defensive effort. They’re ranked 96th in EPA per play on offense, 75th in EPA per pass, and 109th in EPA per rush.
Despite scoring 28.7 points per game, 62nd in the country, offensive coordinator Pat Welsh’s unit is averaging 184.7 passing yards per game, 25th lowest in college football and they’re among the bottom quarter of the country in completion percentage (57.3%). That’s taken an even bigger hit with Smith who’s completing just 47.5% of his passes.
What the RedHawks can do well on offense though is lean on their running game with South Carolina transfer Rashad Amos. Amos is a 6-foot-2, 224-pound hammer who allows Welsh’s offense to bully between the tackles and run the clock. In his last two outings — the two full games without Gabbert — he’s combined for 38 carries for 281.
In the RedHawks' last three games, they’ve averaged only 22 points per game and in the two without Gabbert, they’re averaging only 76.5 passing yards per game. They’ve managed to come out victorious in both thanks to winning the time of possession battle by holding the ball for nearly five minutes longer than their opponents in both games.
They’ll need to continue to run the ball and the clock against this Buffalo Bulls defense given its knack for creating turnovers. Head coach Maurice Linguist’s defensive back background has come through huge for the Bulls who rank 23rd in EPA per play on defense and 11th in EPA per pass.
Led by potential MAC Defensive Player of the Year Devin Grant, the Bulls have held teams to only 195.9 passing yards per game, 13th least in the Group of Five. They’ve been ballhawks on the backend with 11 interceptions, tied for eighth most in the Group of Five, and the RedHawks won’t want to test the air given their quarterback situation.
Even though Buffalo isn’t winning a ton of games at 3-7, they’ve limited points in conference games. They’ve held MAC teams to only 17.3 points per game this season and have given up more than 20 points just twice in six conference games.
Their defense will need to continue to work its magic to keep them in this one too with how poorly their offense has been this season. Scoring just 23 points per game, 97th in the country, Linguist and offensive coordinator DJ Mangas went to a two-QB system last week against Ohio and still only scored 10 points.
The Bulls are an abysmal 117th in EPA per play, 114th in EPA per pass, and 101st in EPA per rush while averaging 321.1 yards per game, 25th lowest in the FBS, and 190.2 passing yards per game, 26th lowest in the country.
Like Miami (OH), Buffalo would rather take the ball out of the hands of their quarterback and stick to the ground game. Starting quarterback Cole Snyder is averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt and has thrown five interceptions to just two touchdowns in his last five games.
Buffalo wants to run the ball with Ron Cook Jr. and Mike Washington while sprinkling in backup quarterback CJ Ogbonna to give the run game some juice with it averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season.
It won’t be easy for Mangas’ unit though with Miami (OH) ranking 40th in EPA per play, 37th in EPA per pass, and 43rd in EPA per rush. They’ve held teams to just 17.1 points per game, 13th best in the country, and 322.5 total yards per game, fifth best in the Group of Five.
Defensive coordinator Bill Brechin’s group is aggressive with 60 TFLs on the season led by potential 2024 NFL Draft pick Brian Ugwu. He and fellow pass rushers Caiden Woullard and Corey Suttle have combined for 21.5 TFLs and 16.5 sacks.
This RedHawks team is built to turn games into bar fights with low scores and plenty of ball-control offense.
My best bet: Under 39.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Buffalo vs Miami (OH) same-game parlay
Under 39.5 points
Miami (OH) -8.5
While neither of these offenses is anything to write home about, the RedHawks rushing attack is the difference here.
They’re averaging 160.7 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry behind the physical style of Amos and Smith’s ability to use his legs.
Buffalo also struggles more to stop the run, ranking 67th in EPA per rush and allowing 175.3 per game. Miami (OH) can do just enough on the ground to cover in a low-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buffalo vs Miami (OH) spread and Over/Under analysis
The books have been leaning Miami (OH) by more than a touchdown since opening with the RedHawks between 8.5 and nine-point favorites.
Martin’s program hasn’t just been one of the best in the Group of Five, they’re one of the best at covering too. Miami (OH) is 8-2 ATS this season only failing to cover as underdogs against Miami and Toledo.
Buffalo has been right down the middle going 5-5 ATS. They’ve struggled more in recent weeks in the MAC ATS though where they’ve gone 1-3 in their last four.
The total opened low at 41.5 with most books continuing that direction down to 39.5. The RedHawks are 5-5 betting the Over this season, but 4-2 betting the Under in MAC games. The Bulls are in a similar boat going 4-6 betting the Over, but have been an astonishing 6-0 betting the Under in conference games.
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) betting trend to know
Miami (OH) has hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Buffalo vs Miami (OH).
Buffalo vs Miami (OH) game info
| Location: | Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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