College football betting expert Brad Powers is back with his favorite plays for Week 7, breaking down where the value lies on this weekend’s slate.
In an in-depth conversation with Covers’ Joe Osborne, Powers shares his top NCAAF picks, while also weighing in on Bill Belichick’s rocky start at North Carolina and whether Notre Dame has untapped upside heading into the back half of the season.
Florida vs 
Texas A&M best bet
Pick: Florida +7.5 (+220 at FanDuel)
Brad thinks there's a lot to like about the Gators, who are coming off a surprising 29-21 win over Texas.
"You think you want to fade them after a big win, but I think there's been a fundamental change at Florida," he says. "Number one, they came off the bye-week last week. DJ Lagway looked healthy. It was by far his best performance this season. He's been banged up all year."
"Number two for Florida, is their true freshman wide receiver. He played in his first game this year. He's a five-star. He had over 100 yards receiving. Makes a hell of a difference for that Florida receiving court. His name's Dallas Wilson. So Florida +7.5 for me."
Also see: Our Florida vs. Texas A&M early prediction.
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Alabama vs 
Missouri best bet
Pick: Missouri +3.5 (+130 at FanDuel)
Brad feels Missouri is also being undervalued against Alabama.
"I am buying into the spot for Missouri catching Alabama off two big time games against Georgia and Vanderbilt," he says. "Missouri has not played a road game this year. They're still at home for this week. They're coming off a buy. Missouri +3.5 I think they win the game outright."
Also see: Our Alabama vs. Missouri early prediction.
Utah State vs 
Hawaii best bet
Pick: Utah State -1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Looking for a bailout game late on Saturday? Brad has just the pick for you.
"I'm here to tell you it should be a little bit bigger spread," he explains. "Utah State is much better in yards per play margin and played the much tougher schedule. And by the way, they're 5-0 against the spread this year and average a cover margin of 12 points per game. They're a very underrated team in the markets, and still underrated this week."
Toledo vs 
Bowling Green best bet
Pick: Bowling Green +10.5 (+340 at FanDuel)
Brad is sticking with his alma mater in this game, although not for the reason you may expect.
"This is actually a play against their Toledo," he says. "If you've been keeping track of college for the last four or five years, the worst favorite in the country is Toledo. Their head coach, Jason Candel, has lost 16 times outright as a favorite since 2021, 11 of them as a double-digit favorite. That's what they're laying here."
BYU vs 
Arizona best bet
Pick: Arizona +1.5 (+104 at FanDuel)
Brad isn't buying into BYU despite the school's unbeaten record.
"BYU has not played a tough slate," he says. "In fact, this is by far their toughest game of the season so far. They've got a true freshman quarterback and this will be his stiffest test. Arizona is a team that that's been undervalued in the market with a win here Arizona will have already passed their win total on the season."
Keep an eye on Notre Dame and Texas Tech
Notre Dame may be just 22-1 to win the College Football National Championship, but Brad feels the Fighting Irish have the biggest upside of any team on the board.
"They're going to be favored in all the remaining games, but they have no margin for error," he says. "I mean they have to win all those games just to get in the playoff."
Brad is also bullish on the Red Raiders.
"I know you're rolling your eyes at Texas Tech," he says. "Keep in mind the No. 1 transfer portal class that they welcomed in this year. When you think Texas Tech you think throwing the ball, offense no defense. This year's team is not your average Texas Tech team. They're running the ball averaging nearly 200 yards per game. They have one of the best defenses in the country. This is a legitimate team that's going to be favored all their remaining games and uh you win the Big 12 obviously you're in the playoff. I think that they got a shot to win multiple games in the playoffs. So 35-1 to win it all, I don't think that's a bad bet."
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UNC is a dumpster fire
Brad was down on UNC from the jump this offseason, and he's doubling down on his views now that Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels are 2-3 and in 11th place in the ACC.
"Under seven and a half wins was the second bet I made this season and I bet that in January," he says. "So I was never a buyer."
In fact, it's been even worse than Brad imagined.
"I wish I would have bet more on the Under because Under seven and a half wins, are you kidding me? You look at the rest of the schedule and this is a 3-9 or 4-8 type of team. And that's against a relatively soft schedule. It's not like they're playing in the SEC. It's against the ACC, which just that doesn't have the the type of financial backing that the Big 10 and the SEC powers do."
Brad thinks it's unlikely Belichick sticks around for a second season in Chapel Hill.
"I think it's a one and done," he says. "This just doesn't scream anything like Bill. There's distractions on off the field with his girlfriend. He doesn't seem like a good recruiter to me. I know their class, and I think I think their class will fall apart. This was a horrific decision by Belichick and the North Carolina administration."
