The Missouri Tigers have raced out to a 5-0 start and rank No. 14 in the nation. Their first real litmus test comes in Week 7, when the Alabama Crimson Tide come to town.
The books know that, which is why they’ve set the visitors as 3.5-point road favorites. My Alabama vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks have Bama bringing Mizzou back down to earth a little bit.
Alabama vs Missouri predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Alabama vs Missouri spread pick: Alabama -3.5
The Missouri Tigers are the second-highest scoring team in the SEC, dropping an average of 45.2 points per game to race out to a 5-0 start. Their latest victim was UMass, who they hammered 42-6, marking the fourth time in five games the Tigers have scored 40+ points.
They combine that with arguably the best defense in the nation, leading the nation in yards allowed per game at 203.8. Missouri allows just 62.4 yards per game on the ground (third) and 141.4 yards through the air (12th).
Yet there’s one thing on their resume lacking until Saturday: elite competition. The Crimson Tide will be the Tigers’ first ranked opponent of the season.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, on the other hand, are battle-tested, having bounced fifth-ranked Georgia and 14th-ranked Vanderbilt in consecutive weeks, handing each program its first loss of the season.
It should be noted that these are not your Nick Saban-led teams of the last decade: they’re neck-and-neck with the top schools in the SEC, and trying to re-establish their claim to the throne in the conference.
They can’t run the ball, but they can sling it all over the field, a Top 10 team in the nation averaging 325.4 yards passing per contest. They’ll need to tighten up their run defense, as they gave up 227 rush yards to Georgia and a healthy 7.5 yards a pop to the Commodores. Mizzou is fourth in the nation in rushing at 292 yards per game.
I think Alabama carries that big-game experience right into Missouri and leaves with a win, covering this small spread along the way.
Early Alabama vs Missouri total pick: Under 53.5
Alabama has gone Under the total in each of its last two wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt. Since dropping a 31-17 opener to Florida State, the Crimson Tide have held three opponents to 14 or fewer points, with Georgia topping out at 21.
The Tide are fifth in the SEC in scoring defense, allowing 16 points per game, just behind the Tigers, who are at 14.6 points per contest.
Last week’s win over UMass was the first Under the team cashed this season, simply because the Minutemen were overwhelmed by that tough defense. Save for a 42-31 shootout win over Kansas, only one opponent has reached 20 points, and the other three opponents have scored 10 or fewer.
Alabama hammered Missouri 34-0 last year, in a game that had a total set at 51 points. The point distribution likely won’t be that lopsided, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a total somewhere in the high 30s or low 40s as defenses will have an impact in this battle of Top-15 schools.
Alabama vs Missouri odds
- Alabama vs. Missouri spread: Missouri +3.5
- Alabama vs. Missouri moneyline: Alabama -155, Missouri +130
- Alabama vs. Missouri Over/Under: 53.5
How to watch Alabama vs Missouri
- Alabama vs. Missouri matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Columbia, MO
- Venue: Memorial Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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