The Florida Gators surprised many with an upset win over Texas last weekend. They’ll now aim for a sweep of the Lone Star State when they head to College Station to face the Texas A&M Aggies.
Take a look at my early Florida vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for October 12.
Florida vs Texas A&M predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Florida vs Texas A&M spread pick: Texas A&M -7.5
I’m going with the Texas A&M Aggies in this game. Although the Florida Gators surprised against what I’d consider an elite Texas defense last week, it’s difficult to see the Gators replicating that offensive success in College Station.
The homefield advantage is substantial. Texas A&M’s crowd creates one of the toughest environments in college football, especially at night.
Head coach Mike Elko remains undefeated as a home favorite, and Kyle Field is one of the few venues in the sport that earns a full 3-point spread advantage in my book. Beyond the venue, this Aggies defense is legitimately strong across the board.
Florida can have some success on the ground. Jadan Baugh is impressive, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and that’ll be their best offensive path. Still, A&M is solid against the run and elite almost everywhere else analytically.
Behind Marcell Reed, the Aggies rank 35th nationally in EPA per pass and are trending upward. They’ll be facing a Florida defense that sits around 70th in that same category while being merely average in pass success rate allowed.
My view is that A&M hits on a few big plays early and forces Florida to chase the game through the air — something this Gators offense isn’t built to do against a top-tier secondary. I see value on the Aggies up to -9.5.
Early Florida vs Texas A&M total pick: Under 46.5
My projection is 46, so I’m roughly aligned with the market. If pressed, I’d side slightly with the Under.
Florida’s offense will likely struggle to score consistently, and if it exceeds expectations, it’ll be on the ground. That approach drains the clock, and the Gators already rank among the slowest FBS teams, averaging 29.3 seconds per play, which is slower than all but 14 teams nationally.
A&M should move the ball effectively, but more through sustained drives and intermediate passing than quick strikes. Texas failed to do that last week, and Florida’s defense has done an excellent job limiting explosives, ranking in the 90th percentile in that metric. Even though it has its flaws.
Overall, the tempo and style point toward a slower, grind-it-out contest. You might find a better number in-game, but preflop I’d still lean Under 46.5.
Florida vs Texas A&M odds
- Florida vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -4.5
- Florida vs. Texas A&M moneyline: Florida +240, Texas A&M -330
- Florida vs. Texas A&M Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Florida vs Texas A&M
- Florida vs. Texas A&M matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET
- City: College Station, TX
- Venue: Kyle Field
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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