Utah State is having the best start to a season in the Gary Anderson coaching era. The Aggies will have their biggest test this Saturday in Logan against the powerhouse of the Mountain West, Boise State.
The Broncos are coming off a heartbreaking loss against Oklahoma State and are looking to get on the right track with their conference opener.
Will Utah State continue their offensive dominance, or will the Broncos take their anger out on the Aggies?
Find out with our free college football betting picks and predictions for Boise St vs. Utah State on Saturday, September 25.
Boise State vs Utah State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The line opened up at most sportsbooks Utah State +9. At the time of the writing, the line has stayed at +9. The total opened up at 63 and has skyrocketed up to 70.
Boise State vs Utah State picks
Picks made on 9/23/2021 at 10:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Boise State vs Utah State game info
• Location: Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
• Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Boise State vs Utah State betting preview
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Boise State: Divine Obichere DT (Doubtful), Stefan Cobbs WR (Questionable), Scale Igiehon DT (Out), Herbert Gums Jr. DT (Questionable), Keeghan Freeborn DT (Questionable), Roman Kafentzis LB (Out)
Utah State: None
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Broncos are 7-0 ATS as favorites of less than 12 points after a non-conference loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Boise State vs. Utah State.
Boise State vs Utah State predictions
Boise State -9 (-110)
Boise State hasn't had their typical dominant start to the season. I would not be surprised to see Boise make a statement early in this game. The Broncos average 28 points in the first frame, which is fourth in the entire nation in first-half scoring. Look for the Broncos to set the tempo and be aggressive on both sides of the ball.
Football Outsiders has Boise State with a noticeably higher offensive and defensive rating this season. The Broncos are 55th in offense and 45th in defensive efficiency. The Aggies are 77th and 112th. Boise also has an advantage in the SP+ ratings. Simply put, it tracks the efficiency of the team as a whole. Boise has a +7.5 SP+ rating, which means they are 7.5 points better than their opponent. Utah State is -9.4 — a 16.9 difference in favor of the Broncos.
A disadvantage I feel Boise will take advantage of is Utah State's pass defense. The Aggies give up 255.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 104th in college football. Hank Bachmeier, QB of Boise State, has been very efficient this year. I expect him to attack this woeful passing defense of the Aggies. This could be the big breakout game for Bachmeier this season!
Boise State has had its way with the Aggies in previous meetings, winning ten straight. Utah State has not been successful when seeking revenge. The Aggies are 1-8 ATS when playing a team that they lost to the last year while coming off a conference game. Utah State played Air Force last week in conference play.
Boise State should not just win the game, but they should win in dominating fashion.
Under 70 (-110)
I was in favor of the Over when this total opened up at 63. Now that it has climbed up to 70, I believe the Over has lost its value here.
70 is a very high total for an Over/Under. You need both teams to be clicking offensively in this game to hit that number.
Boise State's defense has shown life this year. It was able to hold its last two opponents to an average of 16.5 points. The Under is 5-1 in the Broncos' last six games following an ATS loss.
This Broncos defense should be able to slow down this Aggies offense enough to keep this game Under the total.
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