Buffalo vs Ball State Prediction and Picks for College Football Week 12

Buffalo is fresh off a 41-point outing against Akron but is also getting gashed for more than 400 yards per game. That could mean another shootout when Ball State comes to town on Tuesday.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Nov 12, 2024 • 16:14 ET • 4 min read
Al-Jay Henderson Buffalo Bulls MAC college football
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Buffalo Bulls running back Al-Jay Henderson is handed the ball on a draw play.

Two Mid-American Conference squads still fighting for a bowl berth will collide this evening when the Ball State Cardinals visit the Buffalo Bulls.

Even with the Cardinals sitting at just three wins, our Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction focuses on a pair of defenses that can’t seem to stop anyone. Read our college football picks below for more on this Tuesday, November 12 clash.

Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from UB Stadium in Buffalo, with the game airing on CBS Sports Network. 

Ball State vs Buffalo prediction and best bet

My best bet
Over 52.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The Ball State Cardinals are coming off a 27-21 loss to Miami (OH), their second loss in the last three weeks. Miami (OH) is a Bottom-3 scoring team in the conference, but bleeding points has been a consistent theme for Ball State.

The Cardinals are 11th in scoring defense in the MAC, allowing 38.9 points per contest. Their defense is a turnstile at best, surrendering 461.3 yards per game, 130th in college football, and they’re dead last in yards per play (7.2). It’s something they’ll need to improve if they are to run the regular-season table and clinch a bowl bid.

The opposition has had its way with them, running for nearly 170 yards per game while throwing for 291.9 per contest, another Bottom-5 mark in the nation.

The Bulls are on the upswing, though, after dumping Akron 41-30 to bring them within a win of postseason football. The ground game churned out 180 yards and three touchdowns on a decent 4.1 yards per carry, while quarterback C.J. Ogbonna threw for 210 yards and a pair of scores.

How Buffalo’s defense holds up against Ball State will likely determine the winner. The Bulls are still getting gashed for 408.7 yards per game, and teams are throwing for 255.4 yards against — both outside the Top 100.

Ball State is also an impressive 6-3 against the spread this season, which should raise some flags in predicting a runaway Buffalo cover. Instead, with two of the bottom-ranked MAC defenses, the total seems more inviting. The Cardinals sit at 7-1-1 O/U this year, while Buffalo has cashed the Over in five straight games.

Ball State vs Buffalo same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 52.5

Al-Jay Henderson Over 85.5 rushing yards

C.J. Ogbanna anytime touchdown

Al-Jay Henderson is coming off one of his best games of the season, running 18 times for 107 yards and a score in Buffalo’s win over Akron.

Meanwhile, Bulls quarterback C.J. Ogbonna is coming off his best all-around game of the year. His 210 yards passing was his third-highest total — he matched his season-best with two TD passes — and he rushed for a season-high 63 yards and a TD.

Ogbonna’s success should carry over against Ball State's poor run defense that's allowed 17 rushing scores. I like him to find paydirt in back-to-back contests.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ball State vs Buffalo odds

Ball State vs Buffalo live odds

Ball State vs Buffalo opening odds

  • Ball State vs. Buffalo spread: Buffalo -5.5
  • Ball State vs. Buffalo moneyline: Ball State +170, Buffalo -205
  • Ball State vs. Buffalo Over/Under: 53

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Ball State vs Buffalo spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Ball State is 5-2 ATS as underdogs of six or more points.

  • Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games.

  • The Cardinals have cashed the Over in six of their last eight games.

Ball State vs Buffalo betting trend to know

The Bulls have been the moneyline favorites twice this season, winning both. Find more college football betting trends for Ball State vs Buffalo.

Ball State vs Buffalo game info

Location: UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Date: Tuesday, 11-12, 2024
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN

Ball State vs Buffalo latest injuries

Ball State vs Buffalo weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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