Arkansas vs Missouri Odds, Picks and Predictions: Grinding Action to a Halt

Arkansas is probably better than its 6-5 record indicates and Mizzou is similarly superior than its win-loss column. Both defenses could be in fine form and with a total of 56, we're considering whether or not that's too many points.

Last Updated: Nov 25, 2022 8:21 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Brady Cook Nathaniel Peat Mizzou Tigers College Football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

A relatively new border rivalry will renew for the ninth consecutive season when the Arkansas Razorbacks will travel to Columbia to face the Missouri Tigers on Black Friday.

The Razorbacks are 6-5 and coming off a big home win over Mississippi. Missouri is 5-6 and needs this win to claim bowl eligibility after losing two of its previous three games. Will Missouri get another win in this rivalry and punch its ticket to a bowl game?

Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Missouri on Friday, November 25. 

Arkansas vs Missouri best odds

Arkansas vs Missouri picks and predictions

This is a matchup between a high-powered offense and a lockdown defense with Arkansas’ 22nd-ranked offense and Mizzou’s 28th-ranked defense. The Razorbacks average 31 points and the Tigers only allow 24.8 points per contest. Something will need to give on Black Friday.

The Razorbacks’ stats suggest they should be better than 6-5. They rank 24th in the nation in scoring and 25th in the country in points allowed per game. They are one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the top 25 of both categories. 

Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson has had a fantastic season in his second year as the starter. He is completing 67.6% of his passes and has thrown for 20 touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. He also has added 472 yards on the ground with six more touchdowns. 

After missing the home loss to LSU two weeks ago, Jefferson returned to throw for 168 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-27 upset win over Mississippi. Running back Raheim Sanders has also been a major factor to an offense that ranks seventh in the country in rushing yards per game. Sanders has 1,379 rushing yards, 249 receiving yards, and 11 total touchdowns this season.

However, Missouri’s defense ranks 41st in passing yards allowed per game and 34th in rushing yards. The Tigers held South Carolina to only 10 points on the road and almost upset undefeated Georgia, surrendering just 12 points through the first three quarters. Only Kansas State in September and Tennessee two weeks ago, both on the road, were able to drop more than 26 points on this defense.

Arkansas has only averaged 21.5 points per game in its four games at Missouri since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2014. Missouri will be playing as hard as ever in this one, knowing that a win will make it eligible to play one more game this season.

I like the Under here as my best bet in a tightly-contested defensive matchup.

My best bet: Under 56 (-110 at BetMGM)

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Arkansas vs Missouri spread analysis

While Arkansas is one game better in terms of straight-up records, both teams are 6-5 against the spread. This will be only the second time this season that Missouri has been a home underdog and it easily covered the first instance against Georgia. This will also be the second time this season that Arkansas is a road favorite after covering at Auburn in the other instance. 

We haven’t talked much about Missouri’s offense, but it will have some mismatches against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 120th in yards allowed per game. Quarterback Brady Cook has 2,671 total yards and 17 combined touchdowns on the season. 

Cook has found his stride the last two weeks, combining for 472 passing yards, 177 rushing yards, and six touchdowns with no interceptions. He should be able to continue his solid play this week against Arkansas, who allowed 288 total yards to Jaxson Dart last week. 

Missouri has won six of the eight games played between these sides since joining the conference in 2014. The Tigers have also won all four games played at home in the series. The defense will hold Arkansas enough to allow Missouri’s offense to make it seven of nine wins for the Tigers over the Razorbacks.

Arkansas vs Missouri Over/Under analysis

There will be two separate strengths and weakness matching up on either side of the ball. When Arkansas has the ball, it will be strength vs. strength. When Missouri has the ball, it will be weakness vs. weakness. The defense usually wins out in this case. 

While Arkansas does have a strong offense, it is mostly through the ground game. So even if Arkansas does get the ball moving and puts points on the board, it will likely take some time to do so against a strong Missouri defense. Meanwhile, Missouri has yet to score more than 24 points in an SEC game this season.

The Under is 6-1 in Arkansas’ last seven games against a team with a losing record. It is 8-1 in the last nine SEC games for Missouri. Finally, the Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 

Missouri will try to grind this game out and they should be successful in doing so. I would be concerned about the total if it was below 50, but any other number is too good to not play the Under.

Arkansas vs Missouri betting trend to know

The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Missouri.

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Arkansas vs Missouri game info

Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
Date: Friday, November 25, 2022
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

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