Get set for today's Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl with my Arizona State vs. Duke predictions as the GR-R-REATEST time of the year — bowl season — rolls on.
This game features last year’s Big 12 winner and this year’s ACC champ, and CBS has the coverage at 2:00 p.m. ET.
See why my college football picks for Wednesday, December 31 are backing the Over.
Arizona State vs Duke predictions for the Sun Bowl
Who will win the Sun Bowl?
Arizona State will pull off the slight upset as the better-coached team. The Sun Devils had better overall EPA numbers despite facing a more challenging schedule, so they stand a chance at pulling off the upset despite having significant absences on both sides of the ball. Duke’s Swiss Cheese defense remains the worst unit on the field.
Arizona State vs Duke best bet: Over 49.5 (-110)
The Sun Bowl offers a unique contrast of styles between the Arizona State Sun Devils, who play to the Under (4-8 O/U), and the Duke Blue Devils, an Over bettor’s team (9-4 O/U). With several absences on both defenses, here’s betting on Duke’s usual style of play coming through in El Paso.
Arizona State fielded a sound defense (5.0) yards per play, but that unit takes a hit without its top player, cornerback Keith Abney II. He allowed a catch on just 44.4% of his targets while leading the team in PBUs (9) and coverage grade (85.6 per PFF), and his absence will be felt against a great quarterback in Darian Mensah (3,646 passing yards, 30 touchdowns to 5 interceptions).
The Sun Devils will also be without leading tackler Keyshaun Elliot, while third-leading tackler Myles Rowser continues to weigh his decision after declaring for the NFL Draft.
Duke scored 34 points per game while ranking 14th in PFF’s overall offensive grade, so the Blue Devils should find the end zone against a depleted defense.
Meanwhile, Manny Diaz’s defense is a turnstile unit, allowing 6.1 yards per play. Despite featuring backup quarterback Jeff Sims, ASU should find offensive success against a porous unit that ranked 120th in EPA per play allowed before its two best players opted out.
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Arizona State vs Duke same-game parlay
Duke’s defense has been miserable all year, and now it will be without arguably its two best players. Chandler Rivers is an NFL corner and has five more PBUs than any other player on the roster, whereas Vincent Anthony Jr. leads the team in sacks (7.5) and is second in pressures (31).
Kenny Dillingham re-upped with Arizona State after being pursued by Michigan for its melodramatic coaching search. He’s a great coach, and his team should be fired up as the program continues to build momentum under a strong leader.
Arizona State vs Duke SGP
- Over 49.5
- Arizona State +2.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Don't Call it a Comeback
Duke’s defense is the worst unit on the field, meaning Arizona State is live for the entirety of the contest, even if it falls to an early deficit. Dillingham won’t be swayed into a pass-happy game plan if his team falls behind, which would allow Duke’s overly aggressive defense to have success.
Arizona State vs Duke SGP
- Over 49.5
- Arizona State moneyline
- Duke -1.5 in first half
Arizona State vs Duke odds
- Spread: Arizona State +3.5 (-115) | Duke -3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Arizona State +140 | Duke -166
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
Arizona State vs Duke game predictions
Arizona State vs Duke spread prediction
Arizona State will cover this spread, moving to 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games. There’s still Kanye Udoh around to handle plenty of work in the running game — which is all Dillingham needs to scheme up some yardage — and the defense is still much better than its opponent.
Arizona State vs Duke Over/Under prediction
This game will go Over the total, continuing a trend Duke has this season, thanks to its collapsing defense. The Blue Devils are 4-1 O/U in their last five games played away from home.
Arizona State vs Duke trend to know
Duke has cashed the Over in 10 of its last 14 games. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona State vs Duke.
How to watch Arizona State vs Duke
| Location | Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, December 31, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Arizona State vs Duke latest injuries
Arizona State vs Duke weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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