After struggling with a Group of Five and FCS opponent to start the season, the Wisconsin Badgers are going to have their hands full against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 3.
My early Alabama vs. Wisconsin predictions expect the Crimson Tide to roll. Read more in my college football picks below.
Alabama vs Wisconsin predictions
Early spread lean
Alabama -15.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Taking Alabama to cover the 15.5-point spread has far more to do with how poorly Wisconsin has played to start the season than it does with Kalen DeBoer’s team.
The Badgers are 0-2 against the spread after beating Western Michigan by just 14 as 24-point favorites and South Dakota by 14 as 18.5-point favorites.
Maybe the most damning thing about those first two games is a WMU team that just lost 56-0 to Ohio State had Wisconsin on the ropes — leading the Badgers 14-13 at the start of the fourth.
The problem for the Badgers is the offense, which is why I can’t see them keeping it close to cover against Bama. Wisconsin’s offense is 90th in SP+, and QB Tyler Van Dyke seems to be just as sporadic in Madison as he was at Miami.
And while Alabama’s defense no longer has Nick Saban running the show, it’s seventh in SP+ and just completely shut down a South Florida passing attack that has arguably the best G5 QB in the country, Byrum Brown.
With future NFL players in its secondary like Malachi Moore, Keon Sabb, and Domani Jackson, the Tide could give Van Dyke all kinds of problems.
Despite a slow offensive start from Bama in Week 2, there’s no way Wisconsin will be able to keep up once Jalen Milroe & Co. heat up.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
For as strong a 4Q as the Crimson Tide had against South Florida, there are clear issues at offensive tackle that hindered Milroe at times. And, for as bad as the Badgers have looked on offense, the defense has been what you’d expect from a Luke Fickell team (eighth in SP+).
Players like Darryl Peterson, Jake Chaney, and Ricardo Hallman are All-Big Ten caliber, and this front seven should be able to get enough pressure on Milroe to keep Alabama from putting up more than 35.
On the other side, Wisconsin will be lucky to score 16 against a defense allowing just eight points per game thus far — 17th-best in the country. Obviously, the Crimson Tide have only played G5 schools, but it’s still impressive to give up just 227 yards per game.
Plus, the Badgers have struggled to move the ball against an FCS and G5 opponent, putting up just 386.5 ypg and 203 passing ypg. That makes this one of the worst passing attacks in the Power 4 — which is why they’re 2-0 betting the Under — and if they get down early to Alabama, they won’t be able to lean too heavily on the ground game.
If the Crimson Tide do build a lead, they’ll keep the clock churning with their stable of running backs. SP+ projects a 33-15 win for Alabama, which would both cover the spread for the Tide and hit the Under.
Alabama vs Wisconsin live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
