Alabama vs Texas A&M Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Don't Expect Many Fireworks at College Station

It's a big-time SEC affair when No. 11 Alabama heads to College Station to face Texas A&M on Saturday.

The Aggies have rebounded since they dropped a game against Miami. On that day, the Canes ran wild, scoring 48 points and winning by 15. Since then, A&M has won three consecutive games, and its defense has held its opponents to an average of 11.6 points.

Alabama also has one loss on its resume, which came at home when Texas defeated them convincingly. The Tide have also bounced back since then, having won three straight, including a win over ranked Mississippi.

I break down the college football odds and give out my best free college football picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Texas A&M on Saturday, October 7.

Alabama vs Texas A&M best odds

Alabama vs Texas A&M picks and predictions

Over the last few seasons, we've seen several different iterations of Alabama football as it tries to recapture some of the dominance it had for so long. One thing that's apparent with this Alabama team is that it wants to run the ball. 

The Tide enter this matchup with the 24th-most running plays in the country. Some of this is by design, and some of it is because of the trust issues it has with its starting QB Jalen Milroe. That's the redshirt sophomore who, through five games, has lost and regained his starting spot for the Tide. Texas A&M's head coach said the QB is "getting better and better" earlier this week, and while that may be true, there are still some real issues here.

Milroe lacks accuracy and isn't immune to a poor decision — a modest 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio tells that story. With that in mind, I expect the Tide to lean on its run game more than ever in this environment. That belief is strengthened with the knowledge that Milroe will play close to his hometown this week. It's an aspect that could have the QB too amped up rather than have a positive effect. 

Alabama's willingness to run the ball should play into the heads of the A&M defense. It's a group that comes into this matchup with some solid achievements: Top 20 in EPA and Top 10 in success rate. A host of talents on the Aggie defense is finally emerging, but leading tackler Edgerrin Cooper and sack leader Shamar Turner have turned heads. This group should make yards on the ground challenging to come by for Alabama, and really, that's all we are asking from it. The Tide can cap its drives off with points, but they must come hard-earned, and that's what A&M will force.  

On the other side of the coin, there's a similar scenario.

This Alabama defense has been imposing since the Texas debacle. Over the last three games, it's allowed an average of just 10 points, which includes shutting down an electric Mississippi offense. I'm banking on it to continue being stingy here.

It also helps that this is the first real test for Aggies QB Max Johnson. He took over under center after Conner Weigman went down with a season-ending injury. The freshman signal caller is highly-touted and primed for these moments, but expecting him to lead several scoring drives now is a bit much. I expect a measured, methodical offensive approach from the Aggies on Saturday. 

These two teams share the SEC West lead, and the matchup's winner could be the team representing the West in the SEC Championship game. With the high stakes and two players behind center that are difficult to trust, the game should lend itself to more conservative play calling. That means the clock will continue to run most of the day and likely keep the scoring low enough to go Under.

My best bet: Under 46.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Alabama vs Texas A&M same-game parlay

Under 46.5

Jalen Milroe Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

FG first score method

+575 at bet365

We're taking our best bet and combining it with two correlated plays for our same-game parlay.

The first of these is Milroe Under 1.5 passing touchdowns. This should be close to self-explanatory if you read the above. Milroe will not be trusted enough in red zone situations to produce with his arm, and A&M hasn't given up much in the explosiveness area over the past few weeks. This is a reasonably tricky task.

The last leg of this is a bit creative, but it goes along with our handicap. I expect a conservative approach from the two coaches and the defenses to play well. That lends itself to one of the teams settling early on. I'll take the risk at the price point. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Alabama vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis

Picking a side here with any conviction feels close to an impossible endeavor, so I won't.

These are two improving teams but also with plenty of question marks. On one side is a Texas A&M team with elite talent all over the field. In this matchup, it has an edge at the point of attack, given what we've seen the past few weeks. However, this is a freshman QB taking the stage in the first significant test of his career. How does he react?

On the other side, I searched for ways to back Alabama. In my estimation, the spot favors them for the reason I mentioned above. However, I can't get there. The Aggies present a formidable defensive challenge for Milroe, and the last time he faced one of those, he crumbled.

Nick Saban will have his team prepared for this moment, as it feels like "one last gasp." However, I'm unsure they have enough to overcome the challenges here. My projections made the Aggies a 1.5-point underdog, and that's precisely the spread we have. It's a firm stay-away for me.

As we spoke about above, the Under is my best bet. These teams have combined to go Under at a 4-2 clip in their last six overall.

Alabama vs Texas A&M betting trend to know

Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in seven of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 23% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Texas A&M.

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