The AAC isn’t the most traditional college football conference, but there are plenty of great teams and rivalries that make this an intriguing group (of five) heading into this 2025 season.
And the conference winner will be looking to make history by becoming the first team from the AAC to qualify for the College Football Playoff.
That said, the ACC appears to have a clear divide of haves and have-nots, with just a handful of teams that can actually win the conference.
My college football picks break down who will come out on top in the AAC in 2025.
AAC best bets for 2025
Read on for our full analysis and AAC breakdown!
Odds to win the AAC
| Team | Odds to win | Win total O/U |
|---|---|---|
 Tulane |
+380 | 8.5 |
 UTSA |
+420 | 7.5 |
 Navy |
+500 | 8.5 |
 South Florida |
+500 | 6.5 |
 Memphis |
+550 | 8.5 |
 Army |
+1100 | 7.5 |
 North Texas |
+1300 | 6.5 |
 East Carolina |
+1500 | 6.5 |
 FAU |
+5500 | 4.5 |
 Rice |
+7500 | 3.5 |
 UAB |
+8000 | 4.5 |
 Tulsa |
+8000 | 3.5 |
 Charlotte |
+8000 | 3.5 |
 Temple |
+10000 | 3.5 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
AAC preview: Navy rides the wave
Last season felt like the year of the service academies in the AAC. Both Army and Navy were undefeated deep into the season, with the Black Knights coming out on top in the conference, beating Tulane for their first AAC title. Before, funnily enough, losing to the Midshipmen in the Army-Navy game.
That scheduling quirk has been fixed this season, and with Army’s Bryson Daily graduating, it feels like a lot could be on the line for Navy heading into America’s Game.
On top of that, it feels like the Green Wave have unfinished business after losing in the title game in back-to-back years. UTSA, Memphis, and South Florida should also be in the mix for the American title in 2025.
The favorites
Like I said, there are a handful of teams expected to compete for the AAC title this season. Tulane, UTSA, Navy, South Florida, and Memphis.
The thing is, no one is really sure who will come out on top. Tulane, who has played in three consecutive AAC Championship games, is the favorite at +380, while Memphis has the longest odds of these contenders at +550. Basically, the AAC could be wild this year.
Tulane has the conference’s best defense, but star QB Darian Mensah transferred to Duke. UTSA will arguably have the best offense behind Owen McCown, but some holes on D. USF is talented, but can Byrum Brown stay healthy? Memphis is also talented but must replace four-year starting QB Seth Hennigan.
That brings me to Navy…
The rest of the field
The teams just outside the top tier of contenders in the AAC include Army, North Texas, and East Carolina, who all sit in the +1100 to +1500 range.
Army is the reigning champ, but star QB Bryson Daily graduated, and top running back Kanye Udoh transferred to Arizona State. But the Black Knights' run game should still be dominant this season.
North Texas started last season with a 5-1 record before a five-game losing streak, during which they allowed 40 or more points four times. The Mean Green will have to solve those problems on defense if they want to truly be a dark-horse contender.
East Carolina might have the biggest variance in this group. The offense took off when Katin Houser took over under center. However, he was a gunslinger and prone to making poor decisions at times. If he can clean that up, this could be one of the best offenses in the conference.
Pick to win the AAC: Navy (+500)
Last season, new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic implemented the Millennial Wing-T offense, which combines the traditional triple option with more RPO and pro-style schemes, and the Midshipmen came flying out of the gates in 2024.
Navy was 6-0 to start the season before a tough matchup with Notre Dame, which was unfortunately followed up with a letdown against Rice. But they finished the year at 10-3, which included claiming the Commander-In-Chief Trophy against rival and newly minted AAC champion Army, and a big win over Pitt in the military bowl.
QB Blake Horvath was the engine that made the Navy offense go, and he’s back. Horvath rushed for 1,246 yards and 17 touchdowns while throwing, yes, throwing for 1,353 yards and 13 more touchdowns.
The Midshipmen also return four of their other five top rushers and should be able to pressure opposing QBs in the conference with a defensive line that has a great combination of talent and depth.
Navy also avoids Tulane and UTSA in the regular season, so a clear path to the AAC title game is there. Horvath gets them there in 2025.
Favorite win totals bet: Tulane Under 8.5 (-162)
One of these top teams in the AAC isn’t going to hit the Over on their win total, and Tulane just has a really tough non-conference schedule to start the season.
The Green Wave start the season by hosting Northwestern, which won’t be a cakewalk. They follow that up with a trip to South Alabama, which should be a win. Then it’s the Darian Mensah revenge game with Duke coming to town before traveling to Mississippi. So, a 1-3 start is definitely on the table.
That leaves very little room for error in conference play, which includes home matchups vs. ECU and Army and road trips to UTSA and Memphis. Mix in an uncertain QB situation heading into the season, and I’ll take the Under with the Green Wave.
Bonus bet: Navy to make the College Football Playoff (+1200)
I’m already picking Navy to win the conference, so why not take a shot on them to take the next step and do the unthinkable by making the College Football Playoff?
Boise State is the favorite to earn the Group of Five spot in the CFP at +180. Tulane has some of the next best odds at +880. And there is a good chance the Midshipmen will see Tulane in the AAC Championship game.
If Boise stumbles at all in the Mountain West this season, there’s a good chance the winner of the American earns that playoff spot.
Best AAC player prop bet
Katin Houser, QB: Over everything
The ECU offense took off when Katin Houser took over at quarterback in mid-October last season. He threw for 1,725 yards and 18 touchdowns in the team’s final six regular-season games, with the Purple Pirates going 4-2.
But Houser has a gunslinger mentality and threw eight picks in those six games, helping the Over go 4-2 in those games. And a defense that returns just two starters could leak like a sieve this season.
Over game totals, over passing yards, over interceptions. It could be a wild year in East Carolina.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
