Wisconsin vs Purdue Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Picking Up the Pace

Maybe the Wisconsin Badgers are at home in Minneapolis. In three games in the city this season, the Badgers have shot 51.6% from deep, a wild shift from their 34.7% in the rest of their conference games.

Friday’s instinct was to assume that would be unsustainable, but Wisconsin hit 45.5% from deep to top Northwestern to reach the semifinals in the Big Ten Tournament bracket. Do the Badgers have another day of hot shooting in them?

They may need one to keep up with the top offense in the Big Ten conference tournament odds in the Purdue Boilermakers.

It would be short-sighted to doubt Purdue’s defense, but it has been disappointing of late and is certainly the Boilermakers’ weak link.

Combining that reality with this seeming Wisconsin affinity for playing in Minnesota and we can ponder an exciting early afternoon at the Target Center in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Wisconsin vs. Purdue on Saturday, March 16, with tip set for 1:00 ET.

Wisconsin vs Purdue best odds

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Wisconsin vs Purdue picks and predictions

Give the Wisconsin Badgers some credit. They had righted their late-season swoon before reaching the Big Ten Tournament. Yes, they were 3-8 outright and 2-9 against the spread since Feb. 1, but they went 2-0 ATS and 1-1 outright in the week just before the conference tournament.

Look at Wisconsin’s last five games, and its adjusted offensive rating since March 1 ranks No. 13 in the country, per Bart Torvik. The Badgers are playing even better than they were through the season’s first three months, the offense scoring 4.5 points more per 100 possessions than that initial strong stretch, the first two-thirds of the year pushing Wisconsin to 16-5 and a Top-15 team in the country.

That November through January sample size lends some credence to the recent surge. And in all three portions of the season — that initial bulk, the 11-game slog, and now this five-game push — the Badgers have been pushed by their offense. It has always been their best piece. Their defense is better than average but not by much.

Purdue’s season has had no dividing spots. The Boilermakers have been as consistent as a metronome, sitting in the Top 3 of KenPom rankings all season. Their offense, in particular, has not ebbed. Or is “flowed” the negative half of that phrase? Regardless, the closest thing to an offensive dropoff has come in the weeks since March 1, when it has ranked just No. 12 in Bart Torvik's efficiency numbers, scoring 124.5 points per 100 possessions.

Its strength is its shooting, making 41.8% of its threes in conference play.

If Wisconsin keeps up its shooting for one more day, then Purdue will gladly match it. In their two meetings this season, this pair combined for 144 and 148 points, cashing both Overs by exactly half a point apiece. Dropping today’s pregame total below either is nonsensical, particularly with the Badgers beginning to hum again.

My best bet: Over 143.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Wisconsin vs Purdue same-game parlay

Over 144

Wisconsin +6.5

Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 made threes

+625 at DraftKings

Wisconsin has covered the spread in four straight, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by 8.9 points per game. One came on the road against these very Boilermakers, the Badgers losing by eight as 10-point underdogs. That was hardly a moral victory, but it should be noted that Wisconsin was within six points with four minutes to go, despite shooting 5 of 24 from deep.

If the Badgers had enjoyed a touch of their recent shooting success, they might have won that game.

Purdue was driven as much by point guard Braden Smith as by presumptive Player of the Year Zach Edey. Smith had 10 points, 10 assists, and eight rebounds while playing 38 minutes. Across the season, he has been Purdue’s best 3-point shooter, only assist man, leading minutes hog, and displayed the most active hands-on defense.

On Friday, Smith suffered what looked to be a gruesome knee injury, writhing past the baseline, grabbing at his kneecap with his head buried into the concrete beyond the hardwood. He was back on the court within minutes but never looked quite right. Purdue head coach Matt Painter said afterward it was a calf injury, so perhaps Smith is fine, but he appeared reluctant to elevate, going 2 of 6 for five points after the injury, including two missed layups.

If Smith is anything less than 100%, Purdue’s offense will make more mistakes, giving Wisconsin hope at covering this spread.

And if he is reluctant to shoot, a couple more attempts may come Fletcher Loyer’s way. The sophomore went 1-for-1 against Michigan State, the first time he had taken only one 3-pointer since Feb. 18. In that intervening stretch, Loyer had gone 9-of-18 from beyond the arc.

To better his cause, Wisconsin gave up a higher 3-point percentage than any other defense in the Big Ten, 39.3% part of why the Badgers defense never fared better than decent this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wisconsin vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

Just a week ago, Wisconsin was a 10-point underdog at Purdue. If Mackey Arena is worth 3.5 points, that game would have favored the Boilermakers by 6.5 on a neutral court.

The Badgers’ shooting this week should not inherently be baked into any power ratings but should be acknowledged. The possibility of Smith being slowed should also be factored in. Wisconsin may be on its third game in three days, but its rout of Maryland on Thursday was hardly stressful, and both its games this week have been low-possession affairs.

The total opened at 143.5, four points lower than the previous meeting. Chalk that up to the expected fatigue and possible Smith worry, though neither should be granted that much credence until seen on the court.

Wisconsin vs Purdue betting trend to know

When favored by at least three buckets since Christmas, Purdue went 5-12 ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Purdue.

Wisconsin vs Purdue game info

Wisconsin vs Purdue key injuries

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