The Wisconsin Badgers will try to slow down the Iowa Hawkeyes' high-powered offense when the two sides square off in the second round of the Big Ten Conference Tournament on Friday night.
The Hawkeyes are No. 5 in the latest AP Top 25 poll and will be looking for another win against the Badgers after defeating them in their regular-season finale on Sunday.
We bring you our best free Wisconsin vs. Iowa picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Friday, March 12, with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Wisconsin vs Iowa odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonIowa opened -4.5 at BetMGM Nevada and initially dipped to -4 but is now up to -5, and it is all Hawkeyes 30 minutes before this 9 p.m. ET start. "This one is really lopsided, tickets and money-wise. It's roughly 5/1 tickets in favor of Iowa, and money is approaching 15/1," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. At least part of that Iowa avalanche is due to news over the past hour that star guard Joe Wieskamp (ankle) will play tonight. The total dropped from 146.5 to 143. "Tickets are pretty even, but the money is on the Under, about 4/1," Shelton said.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Wisconsin Badgers vs Iowa Hawkeyes betting preview
Injuries
Wisconsin: Ben Carlson F (Out).
Iowa: Joe Wieskamp G (Questionable), Jack Nunge F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Hawkeyes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Iowa.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Wisconsin held on for a 75-74 win over the Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday night. The Badgers led by 16 points with just five minutes left in the game before allowing Penn State to go on a 17-2 run.
The Badgers really needed that victory, as they closed out their regular season with a six-game stretch where they went 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. Two of their losses during that span came against the Hawkeyes, who are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS over their last eight games.
This is a classic battle between a high-octane offense and a grinding defensive squad. The Badgers allow the fewest points per game in the conference (64 ppg) while the Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten in scoring with 85 ppg.
So which strength will prevail? Well, if the two earlier meetings this season are any indication, Iowa won't have much trouble putting up points. The Hawkeyes shot 51 percent from the field against the Badgers on Sunday, while shooting an identical 51 percent (including an absurd 63 percent from beyond the arc) in Madison on February 18.
The Hawkeyes have been very efficient inside thanks to Naismith Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza, who leads the team with 23.8 ppg on 55 percent shooting from the field. As good as the Badgers' defensive system is, they won't have an answer for Garza or his supporting cast of outside sharp-shooters.
With Wisconsin ranking outside the Top-200 in scoring with 69.9 ppg, don't expect them to be able to keep pace with Iowa. Back the Hawkeyes on the spread.
PREDICTION: Iowa -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Badgers might be coming off a 75-point performance against Penn State but they were absolutely unconscious from deep in that contest, going 12-23 from 3-point range. That sort of outside shooting simply isn't sustainable long-term and regression is inevitable.
Shooting from inside the arc is a better indicator of consistent offensive play and frankly, Wisconsin sucks in that area. The Badgers rank just 283rd in the country in two-point field goal percentage at 46.7.
Combine that brutal offense, with their stout defense, and their extremely slow style of play (the Badgers rank 325th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom), and you have all the ingredients for an Under machine.
While the Hawkeyes put up plenty of points, oddsmakers might be setting their O/U numbers a tad too high. Although they have cashed the Over in back-to-back contests, they hit the Under in seven straight games prior to that. With the Under also going 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these Big Ten rivals, bet it again.
PREDICTION: Under 145.5 (-110)
Wisconsin vs Iowa betting card
- Iowa -4.5 (-110)
- Under 145.5 (-110)
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