Villanova vs Georgetown Odds, Picks and Predictions: Hoyas Can Hang With Nova

The Georgetown Hoyas will look to play spoiler as they take on the Villanova Wildcats in the Big East Tournament on Wednesday.

The Hoyas (7-24) dropped nine of 10 down the stretch to finish the Big East season with a 2-18 record. The Wildcats (16-15) ended the season strong, winning six of eight to put themselves in a position to play in the NIT, even if an NCAA Tournament bid remains far out of reach.

As bad as Georgetown has been this season, the Hoyas played Villanova tough in their last meeting. We’ll look at how the third matchup between these longtime rivals will play out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Georgetown vs. Villanova on March 8.

Villanova vs Georgetown best odds

Villanova vs Georgetown picks and predictions

The Georgetown Hoyas may have only won two games in the Big East schedule this year, but that’s actually a sign of improvement. Patrick Ewing’s squad went 0-19 in conference play last season, and he’ll be glad that the Hoyas didn’t repeat that performance this year.

Make no mistake: Georgetown is still terrible. The Hoyas are allowing 78.1 points per game, among the worst numbers in the country. Even when accounting for the strength of the Big East schedule, Georgetown plays the worst defense in the conference. The Hoyas have given up 74 or more points in six of their last seven games, with the only exception coming against a hapless Butler offense.

Thankfully for the Hoyas, the Villanova Wildcats aren’t a team designed to take advantage of that ineptitude. The Wildcats are only scoring 69.5 points per game, and don’t shoot the ball particularly well, hitting only 43.8% of their shots from the field. Villanova’s offense is still fairly efficient — in large part because it shoots a nation-best 82.3% from the free throw line — but its slow pace means the Wildcats rarely play high-scoring games themselves.

It also means that Villanova rarely blows out its opponents. In its last 16 games (and last eight wins), the Wildcats have only won one game by more than 12 points. Veterans Eric Dixon and Caleb Daniels lead a solid and reliable offense, but it’s not one that blows away the opposition.

That brings us to today’s game. Villanova has beaten Georgetown twice this season. The Hoyas hosted the first game, which the Wildcats won 73-57. On the return visit to Villanova, Georgetown was far more competitive, falling just short in a 77-73 loss. 

Sophomore guard Jordan Riley was particularly effective for the Hoyas in both of these games, averaging 15 points in the two contests despite scoring just 4.8 points per game on the season overall.

None of this suggests that Georgetown can actually win on Wednesday. However, there’s plenty of reason to think the Hoyas can stick around in this one and give Villanova a fight.

With a massive spread to boost our chances, I’m taking Georgetown and the points.

My best bet: Georgetown +11 (-108 at WynnBet)

Villanova vs Georgetown spread analysis

Villanova opened tonight’s game as a 10.5-point favorite. The consensus spread has moved up slightly to Villanova -11, but there are a variety of lines out there with different amounts of vig. You can get Georgetown +11.5 if you’re willing to pay -115, or even take -102 odds if you’re okay with getting just 10.5 points.

Despite a disappointing record, Georgetown hasn’t been that bad against the spread this year. The Hoyas are 14-16 ATS on the year and 6-4 ATS in their last 10. Meanwhile, Villanova has put up a 13-18 mark ATS this season. 

While Georgetown hasn’t been able to regularly hang in there with some of the best teams in the Big East, the Hoyas have had much more success against mediocre squads like Villanova. They’ve suffered single-digit losses to Seton Hall, UConn, and Saint John’s in recent weeks, not to mention, a couple of competitive games against the Wildcats already this season.

As I said above, I don’t like betting Georgetown to win this game, as that seems a bridge too far even at +500 odds. But with a double-digit line, the Hoyas are the clear pick tonight on the spread.

Villanova vs Georgetown Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 142 points. That number has come down slightly, and depending on where you bet the Over/Under, you’ll see numbers of either 141 or 141.5 across the board. Both teams have played about evenly to the Over and the Under this season.

If you’re looking for something resembling a trend, the Over is 4-2 in Georgetown’s last six games, as well as 3-2 in Villanova’s last five. Looking at the two games these teams played earlier in the season, we have totals of 130 and 150.

However, the general pace of play suggests a number closer to 150 is more likely in this third matchup. The only low-scoring half these teams have played came in the first matchup when the Hoyas put up an anemic 22 points in the second half.

Outside of that, these teams have played a competitive, high-scoring brand of basketball, and that’s most likely what we’ll see again on Wednesday. While the totals on the market look reasonable at first glance, I’m going to take the Over at the lowest number available, and I’d be willing to do so even if the total pipes back up to 142.

Villanova vs Georgetown betting trend to know

The Hoyas are 9-4 ATS over their last 13 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Villanova vs. Georgetown.

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