We have a great matchup to cap a great college basketball slate when Houston and Texas Tech meet up.
The Cougars have a strong head-to-head history in this matchup, winning five of their last six meetings. That said, those six matchups have included only one ATS cover. It should make for an intriguing matchup tonight.
I break it all down in my Texas Tech vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, January 5.
Texas Tech vs Houston prediction
Texas Tech vs Houston best bet: Texas Tech +6 (-110)
In past years, this would have been a smash spot for me and Houston but things change. I’ve had a hard time coming around to this Cougars team for several reasons, and I’ll back the Texas Tech Red Raiders with the points. This feels like a possession game and getting +6.5 alongside my projection of +4.5 is too much to pass up.
The biggest reason is how Houston wants to win right now. They’re still physical and will still defend, but the offense has been far more prone to empty stretches than we’re used to.
When the Cougars aren’t generating easy looks at the rim, you can get stuck in many late-clock possessions that turn into tough shot-making. That’s fine if you’re laying a bucket or two but less comfortable when you’re asked to win by multiple possessions.
Texas Tech also matches up in a way that keeps them able to hang. Christian Anderson can steady the ball and generate decent looks without needing a perfect set, and Donovan Atwell gives you that secondary pop when Houston overplays the initial action.
If LeJuan Watts is hitting enough jumpers to force a closeout, Tech’s half-court offense has more counters than Houston has seen in a few recent matchups. And the obvious swing factor is JT Toppin.
That’s not even in regard to his scoring but more of a comment on the most likely physical presence to keep Tech competitive on the glass which is a huge swing point in any Houston game.
If this game plays to the script—with a slower pace, fewer transition freebies, and both teams grinding possessions—then +6 is simply too much room.
Tech doesn’t need to be perfect, they just need to avoid the live-ball turnover avalanche that fuels Houston runs.
Texas Tech vs Houston same-game parlay
We start things off with Toppin reaching double-digit rebounds. I believe there is a path to him having a big night on the glass but in some ways that’s inconsequential.
The Red Raiders won’t cover this spread if he doesn’t grab at least ten boards so it makes sense to pair him with our best bet.
I finished things off with the Under. While I’m nearly on market here, the whole game script I’ve presented above lends itself to a grinder.
Houston has been prone to extended stretches of scoreless basketball while the Cougs are still an elite defense.
Texas Tech vs Houston SGP
- Texas Tech +6.5
- JT Toppin Over 9.5 rebounds
- Under 143.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Red Raiders dull Sharp's shooting
Texas Tech limiting Houston in transition is the most important aspect of this matchup. I believe they do it and when they do that, Emmanuel Sharp’s scoring tends to drop.
Texas Tech vs Houston SGP
- Texas Tech +6.5
- JT Toppin Over 9.5 rebounds
- Under 143.5
- Emanuel Sharp Under 15.5 points
Texas Tech vs Houston odds
- Spread: Texas Tech +6 (-110) | Houston -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech +210 | Houston -260
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110)
Texas Tech vs Houston betting trend to know
Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 38 games (+14.95 Units / 1% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Houston.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Houston
| Location | Fertitta Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, January 6, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Texas Tech vs Houston key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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