Although SMU had higher hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament, the Mustangs could still take home a title if they live up to their billing as the NIT odds favorites and take down Oklahoma State in the second round.
While the Stangs' are pushing to improve their athletics with the recent hire of Maryland’s Damon Evans as athletic director, the Pokes continue to struggle on the hardwood with Steve Lutz's first year as bench boss being less than spectacular.
My Oklahoma State vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 22 expect the on-court product to reflect the off-court efforts of both schools.
Who will win Oklahoma State vs SMU?
If SMU had managed to win about two more games in Andy Enfield’s first season at the helm, there’s a strong chance the Mustangs would have been playing this weekend in March Madness.
This is a good SMU program, which is why it’s the favorite to win the NIT. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is just 16-17 with one of the worst defenses in the Power. I think SMU exploits the defense and wins 86-73.
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Oklahoma State vs SMU prediction
My best bet: SMU -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
While the Big 12 was far more competitive than the ACC this season, both programs had vastly different years under their first-year head coaches. Lutz’s Pokes limited to a losing record and went just 7-13 in conference play and Enfield’s Mustangs are one win away from their first 25-plus-win season since 2016-17.
These teams are on totally different levels with the SMU offense being the biggest difference in how these teams match up. The Mustangs are 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while the Cowboys are just 145th.
In a game that’s expected to be fairly high scoring with a game total of 157, SMU has the guns to win this southwestern shootout. This is a deep rotation with six players scoring in the double digits this season, and all six playing between 23 and 29 MPG.
That core has SMU sitting 43rd in the country in PPG (79.8), and even if Kevin “Boopie” Miller — the team's leading scorer (13.2) didn’t play against Northern Iowa — doesn’t suit up, SMU can lean on Chuck Harris, BJ Edwards, Matt Cross, Mario Oquendo, and Same Yigitoglu.
Those five combined for 56 against Northern Iowa with Yohan Traore pouring in another 11 off the bench. Oklahoma State’s defense just won’t have answers for a program that’s top 50 in the nation in field goal percentage (48%), made 2-pointers per game (20.6), and 3-point percentage (37.3%).
The Pokes also don’t have the offense to quite keep up, after they were just 10th in PPG in Big 12 play this season (69.4). The Cowboys are 6-16 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, and this looks like a big loss is brewing.
Oklahoma State vs SMU same-game parlay (SGP)
SMU -9.5
Over 157.5
SMU to win and either team not to score 80+ points
SMU is going to win this game by double digits thanks to its offense. It should score 80-plus along the way too, which will help hit this Over.
The Cowboys' defense is seriously bad, ranking outside the top 250 in points allowed per game (76.6), field goal percentage allowed (45.7%), 3-pointers allowed (8.7), and free throws allowed per game (14.9).
However, the duo of Bryce Thompson and Abou Ousmane are strong enough offensively for Oklahoma State to score in the 70s. That pair put up a combined 36 points in the first round of the NIT against Wichita State.
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Oklahoma State vs SMU odds
Oklahoma State vs SMU live odds
Oklahoma State vs SMU opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State +10 | SMU -10
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State +400 | SMU -550
- Over/Under: Over 152 | Under 152
Odds courtesy of bet365
Oklahoma State vs SMU betting trend to know
SMU has hit the moneyline in 19 of its last 27 games (+8.55 Units / 7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. SMU.
How to watch Oklahoma State vs SMU
| Location | Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Oklahoma State vs SMU key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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