March: When two rival programs can meet with a conference tournament championship and a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line.
That’s what’s in store tonight as the No. 3 seed North Dakota Fighting Hawks face the No. 1 seed North Dakota State Bison in the Summit League title game.
The Bison have been a power in the Summit (14-2 league record), but I’m backing the red-hot Fighting Hawks as the underdogs with my North Dakota State vs. North Dakota predictions and college basketball picks below.
North Dakota State vs North Dakota prediction
Who will win North Dakota State vs North Dakota?
While I prefer taking the points with North Dakota, I expect NDSU to be the winning side when all is said and done.
North Dakota State vs North Dakota best bet
North Dakota State vs North Dakota best bet: North Dakota +9.5 (-116)
The books have been playing catch-up with the North Dakota Fighting Hawks, which started the year 5-10 before getting hot and finishing 13-6 in its last 19 games.
The Fighting Hawks have been one of the most profitable teams in the sport during their hot stretch, covering 15 of their last 20 games.
They’ve been aces in Sioux Falls, beating the spread by 19.5 points against Denver and 12.5 against St. Thomas. It’s evident the books haven’t caught up yet, and Paul Sather’s squad showed tremendous poise and grit by knocking off the conference’s highest-rated analytic team last night.
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North Dakota State vs North Dakota same-game parlay
North Dakota isn’t known for its defense, but the Fighting Hawks have been just fine on that side of the ball in this tournament by holding Denver to 67 points and St. Thomas to 66. The Tommies have the best adjusted field goal percentage in the country since January 1, and holding them down is no small matter.
The North Dakota State Bison completely locked down Omaha in the semis, holding last year’s tournament champ to 50 points on 30% from the field and 15% from deep. This Bison have limited each of their last three opponents to 65 points or fewer and are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.
North Dakota State vs North Dakota SGP
- North Dakota +9.5
- Under 145
- First half Under 69
Our beyond the arc SGP: Comeback Kids
The Bison have covered the first-half spread in 17 of their last 25 games, while the Fighting Hawks have been a lethal second-half team (15-5 ATS against the full game total in their last 20 but just 12-13 ATS against the first-half spread in their last 25).
North Dakota State vs North Dakota SGP
- North Dakota +9.5
- Under 145
- North Dakota State first half -5.5
North Dakota State vs North Dakota odds
- Spread: North Dakota State -9.5 | North Dakota +9.5
- Moneyline: North Dakota State -525| North Dakota +375
- Over/Under: Over 145 | Under 145
North Dakota State vs North Dakota betting trend to know
North Dakota has covered the spread in 15 of its last 20 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Dakota State vs North Dakota.
How to watch North Dakota State vs North Dakota
| Location | Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD |
| Date | Sunday, March 8, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSNN |
North Dakota State vs North Dakota key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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