Mid-Major NCAA basketball tournament odds, betting picks and live long shots

March Madness betting has started. It may not be the power conferences playing out their postseasons (that happens next week), but a series of small mid-major leagues tip off their tournaments this week with the winners advancing to the NCAA tournament.

While these tournaments don't carry nearly the same level of prestige as the Big Ten, SEC or ACC competitions, they do present plenty of under-the-radar opportunities to bet the NCAA basketball odds and offer edges you won't find in the major tournaments.

Not every team in a small conference tournament is necessarily worth keeping an eye on, but many have something bettors can capitalize on if they look hard enough. Fortunately, you won't have to because we've done the work for you. Here's a detailed look at the most interesting mid-major tournament teams from a betting perspective. We can't promise these trends will continue as we head toward March Madness betting, but this list is a great place to get started (records as of Monday):

AMERICA EAST (MARCH 7-14, CAMPUS SITES)

TEAM TO BEAT: Vermont Catamounts (23-7 SU, 17-11-1 ATS, 11-17-1 O/U)

The Catamounts were barely tested in America East play this season, rolling to a 13-2 record (with their two conference defeats coming by a combined six points.) They've stifled the opposition to the tune of 59.2 points per game - the fourth-lowest average in the country. And they just might be saving their best for last, putting up a season-best 94 points in a one-sided win over UMass Lowell to close out a wildly successful regular season. They're going to be tough to topple in the conference tourney.

LIVE UNDERDOG: UMass Lowell River Hawks (12-18, 10-18 ATS, 16-11-1 O/U)

Let's dig deep for our underdog play and we're going with none other than the team that just handed the Catamounts one of their most impressive victories on the conference calendar. The River Hawks' defense has been a major disappointment on the season, but they boast the best offensive attack in the America East (75.0 points per game) and have played just one poor game in their past five outings. They'll need teams to miss shots, but if they can keep their offense on track, they could be dangerous.

ATLANTIC SUN (MARCH 3-8, CAMPUS SITES)

TEAM TO BEAT: Liberty Flames (27-4 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 13-16 O/U)

The Flames boast one of the most impressive defenses in the nation, having limited opponents to a paltry 53.2 points per game (second-fewest in Div. I) while holding them to 38.4-percent shooting (ninth). This team isn't afraid of the spotlight, having upset No. 5 Mississippi State in the opening round of last year's NCAA tournament. Look for the Flames to be a popular pick to win the America East title despite offensive shortcomings and major rebounding issues.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Lipscomb Bisons (14-15 SU, 13-14 ATS, 16-10-1 O/U)

Don't be fooled by the Bisons' overall record (and you can ignore their slightly-better 9-7 conference mark, as well.) This team is on fire, coming into the first round of the America East tournament with wins in six of its previous seven games. That includes an impressive six-point win over powerhouse Liberty, with the only loss over that span coming to No. 2 tourney seed North Florida. The Bisons played tough in a six-point loss at Liberty earlier this year, and are peaking at the right time.

BIG SOUTH (MARCH 3-8, CAMPUS SITES)

TEAM TO BEAT: Winthrop Eagles (21-10 SU, 16-13 ATS, 17-12 O/U)

We easily could have listed two teams here, and probably should have. Not only did Winthrop and Radford finish with identical conference records, they were so evenly-matched that it took a fourth tiebreaker – each team's record vs. the fifth-place team in the conference – to award Radford the No. 1 seed. So why are we leaning toward Winthrop? It's riding a two-game winning streak and has a victory versus a nationally-ranked team under their belt. And with a pairing this close, those matter.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (15-15 SU, 15-12 ATS, 16-11 O/U)

Oddsmakers firmly believe we're going to see a Radford-Winthrop championship meeting and there are plenty of compelling reasons why. But don't sleep on the Bulldogs, who were frustratingly inconsistent in the early part of the season but have caught fire with seven wins in eight games entering the Big South tourney. And that stretch includes statement victories over both Radford and Winthrop, suggesting that anyone ready to declare this a two-team tournament might want to reconsider.

COLONIAL (MARCH 7-10, WASHINGTON, D.C.)

TEAM TO BEAT: Hofstra Pride (23-8 SU, 22-8 ATS, 11-18-1 O/U)

Oh, Hofstra. You made friends of NCAA basketball bettors with the second-best ATS record in the country, and while you did it on the strength of the 42nd-best offensive attack (77.1 ppg), that didn't prevent you from being an impressive Under play, as well. Most notable about Hofstra's Colonial Athletic Association title aspirations: the Pride won 11 of 15 games away from The Mack, which should serve them well as they make the journey to the U.S. capital.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Towson Tigers (19-12 SU, 18-11 ATS, 14-15 O/U)

If you're going to be a solid underdog play, there has to be at least one thing you do really well. And in the case of the Tigers, it's how they fare from the free-throw line. Towson enters the CAA tournament ranked 15th in the country in foul-shot success rate (77.2 percent), which could come in handy if they're able to get to the line. Towson also turns the ball over just 11.8 times per game (the fourth-best rate in the conference) and could make noise if it continues to protect the rock.

HORIZON LEAGUE (MARCH 3-10, CAMPUS SITES/INDIANAPOLIS, IND.)

TEAM TO BEAT: Wright State Raiders (25-6 SU, 14-13-2 ATS, 19-10 O/U)

A three-game road trip to end the 2019-20 schedule provided stiff test for the Raiders, and they produced a passing grade with wins in two of those games to secure the regular season title. Wright State could make some noise in the NCAA tournament thanks in large part to an 81.4-point scoring average that ranks fifth in the country. And while some future high seed is praying they don't advance, it's hard to see any team other than the Raiders advancing out of the Horizon League.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Green Bay Phoenix (16-15 SU, 14-14-1 ATS, 19-10 O/U)

Here's another team that could give an NCAA tournament foe some serious headaches. The Phoenix average the third-most points in the country at 82.2 points per game, behind only Gonzaga and Alabama. And while Green Bay's defense is its biggest impediment to advancing, that might not matter much if the team can extend the hot long-range shooting stroke it exhibited during the season (37.5 percent, 20th in the country). Don't be surprise to see this team in the conference title game.

MAAC (MARCH 10-14, ATLANTIC CITY, N.J.)

TEAM TO BEAT: Saint Peter's Peacocks (16-12 SU, 19-9 ATS, 13-15 O/U)

Siena might come into the final week of the MAAC's regular season with a slight edge in the standings, but we like the Peacocks as the team going into the tournament with the most momentum. Saint Peter's has reeled off 10 victories over its previous 12 games to challenge Siena for top spot, and with both teams winning one meeting apiece (with each game decided by five or fewer points), there's precious little separating the clubs. Give us the Peacocks by a slim margin.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Niagara Purple Eagles (11-18 SU, 17-12 ATS, 11-17-1 O/U)

We can't quite figure out how the Purple Eagles have managed to put together a 9-9 record in conference play coming into the week. They own a minus-6.5 average scoring margin on the season and are easily the worst rebounding team in the country (its 27.5 rpg average is nearly two boards lower than the next closest team.) But the Purple Eagles are 2-1 versus division leaders Siena and Saint Peter's and are coming off a 100-point explosion against Iona. You could do worse for a deep mid-major tourney sleeper bet.

MISSOURI VALLEY (MARCH 5-8, ST. LOUIS, MO.)

TEAM TO BEAT: Northern Iowa Panthers (25-5 SU, 19-8-1 ATS, 17-11 O/U)

It's good to be a Panther – or someone betting on them. In addition to having the fourth-best ATS record, Northern Iowa leads the conference in every major offensive and shooting category, including scoring (75.8 ppg) and 3-point shooting (39.6). And the latter stat looms large. It ranks No. 4 in the entire country and that could help the Panthers make a deep NCAA tournament run if they continue to shoot that well from beyond the arc.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Indiana State Sycamores (18-11 SU, 15-12-1 ATS, 11-17 O/U)

If you believe that lights-out perimeter shooting has the Panthers on a collision course to playoff success, the Sycamores might be worth a look as an underdog option. Indiana State isn't that far behind Northern Iowa, boasting a 38.3-percent success rate from long range that ranks No. 11 nationally. The Sycamores have turned things around with four consecutive victories coming into the final week of the MVC season, and could prove to be a challenging out once the conference tourney begins. 

MOUNTAIN WEST (MARCH 4-7, LAS VEGAS)

TEAM TO BEAT: San Diego State Aztecs (28-1 SU, 18-10 ATS, 14-13-1 O/U)

There might not be a mid-major team worth more of your betting capital come conference tournament time than the Aztecs, who laid waste to the entire Mountain West en route to a 17-1 conference record. They own the No. 3 scoring defense in the country at 59.2 points per game against, and have four scorers averaging double digits in points while ranking inside the Top-30 nationally in field-goal percentage (47.1). This is one of the top teams in the country, and should coast through this tourney with ease.

LIVE UNDERDOG: UNLV Rebels (17-14 SU, 17-14 ATS, 16-15 O/U)

As hard as it is to believe, the Aztecs aren't the hottest team in the Mountain West heading into the conference tourney. The Rebels have reeled off five consecutive victories while covering in all five. That stretch includes a 66-63 triumph over the previously unbeaten Aztecs. UNLV has the length to make life miserable for opposing teams, but it'll need to be better from long distance (and more disciplined when it comes to fouls) if it hopes to pull off a second major upset in Las Vegas.

NORTHEAST (MARCH 4-10, CAMPUS SITES)

TEAM TO BEAT: St. Francis (PA) Red Flash (20-9 SU, 18-8-1 ATS, 14-13 O/U)

With the feel-good Merrimack Warriors ineligible for the postseason in their first year in the conference, the Red Flash are the team to watch even though they don't own the No. 1 seed. St. Francis romped to eight wins in its final nine regular season games, with a 10-point road loss to top-seeded Robert Morris as the only blemish. Look for Keith Braxton to lead the Red Flash to the final with ease. And once there, we like their shot at a revenge win over the Colonials.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Fairleigh Dickenson Knights (11-18 SU, 13-15 ATS, 16-11-1 O/U)

It's not about how you start your college basketball schedule, but how you finish. And the Knights have come on surprisingly strong down the stretch, winning seven of their past 10 games to build some much-needed momentum heading into their regular season finale Wednesday at Long Island. The Knights face a rocky path to a conference title as a No. 5 seed, but it's one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the country (36.3 percent) and could ride its hot long-distance shooting to an upset.

OHIO VALLEY (MARCH 4-7, EVANSVILLE, IND.)

TEAM TO BEAT: Belmont Bruins (24-7 SU, 17-13 ATS, 13-17 O/U)

How about a 10-game winning streak to punctuate a sensational conference showing? The Bruins weren't messing around down the stretch, with nine of their 10 victories coming by seven or more points. They're one of the few mid-major teams to dominate at both ends of the floor, averaging better than 80 points per game while surrendering just 68.3. They might have their hands full come NCAA tournament time, but we like their chances of getting there.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (9-22 SU, 13-16 ATS, 14-15 O/U)

Oof. That record probably has you spooked. And you're right to feel that way. The Golden Eagles have a 2019-20 scoring margin of around minus-6.5, and are saddled with one of the most anemic offenses in the nation. But they come into the tourney having won four of seven, with two of their three losses coming by fewer than five points. And they're one of the few teams to give Belmont trouble, with their two defeats this season coming by a combined 11 points. It's a long shot, but could pay off in a big way.

PATRIOT LEAGUE (MARCH 3-11, CAMPUS SITES)

TEAM TO BEAT: Colgate Raiders (23-8 SU, 14-16 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U)

The Raiders used three brutal road games against Clemson, Syracuse and Auburn at the beginning of their schedule as the springboard to an outstanding season, during which they didn't lose two straight games after that three-game stretch. Their school-record 14 conference wins have earned them the top seed for the Patriot tournament, where they'll have home-court advantage throughout. That's a big problem for the opposition, with Colgate having gone 13-1 at Reid Athletic Center.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Lafayette Leopards (18-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS, 11-17 O/U)

The Leopards might seem like a curious choice for this spot given that they're down leading scorer Justin Jaworski, who is out with a torn ACL, and that they scuffled through their conference schedule and have a rather modest plus-2.1 point differential for the season. But Lafayette has two things working in its favor heading into tournament time: it's one of the best ball-distribution clubs (15.3 assists per game, T-26th in the nation) and it has a rather impressive 9-6 road record on the season. If it can keep both of those trends alive, and continue to turn up the defensive intensity without Jaworski, we could be looking at a big-time underdog play.

SOUTHERN (MARCH 6-9, ASHEVILLE, NC)

TEAM TO BEAT: East Tennessee State Buccaneers (27-4 SU, 15-13 ATS, 14-14 O/U)

The Bucs come in with plenty of momentum after putting together a nine-game winning streak to close out the season. Their 27 wins are a school record and they were dominant along the way, boasting a plus-12.8 point differential (ninth-best in Div. I) to fend off Furman for the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. They've shown cracks of late (each of their last three wins have come by six or fewer points), but they're deep and talented enough at both ends to pay off their conference title odds.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Mercer Bears (17-14 SU, 16-12-1 ATS, 8-21 O/U)

Much of the discussion surrounding Southern Conference championship contenders will center around ETSU, Furman and UNC Greensboro. But bettors shouldn't sleep on Mercer. The Bears come in having won 10 of their previous 13 games overall and are ranked just outside the Top 50 nation-wide in 3-point success rate (35.9 percent). Mercer has the toughest path of the top four teams, but could pull out the upset if it can keep hitting from long range.

SUMMIT LEAGUE (MARCH 7-10, SIOUX FALLS, SD)

TEAM TO BEAT: North Dakota State Bison (22-8 SU, 14-13-1 ATS, 14-14 O/U)

The separation between the Bison and rival South Dakota State Jackrabbits is incredibly slim, but we like NDSU as the Summit League pace-setter for a couple of reasons. For one, the Bisons have an easier road to hoe, with SDSU likely having to go through plucky South Dakota in the semifinals. The Bison also been playing out of their minds, with wins in nine of their previous 10 games (and five of those victories coming by double digits). Sioux Falls is hostile territory, but we like the Bisons to prevail.

LIVE UNDERDOG: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (16-13 SU, 13-11-1 ATS, 16-9 O/U)

The Golden Eagles might not get past ND State in the semis, but they'll almost certainly make it interesting. Oral Roberts ranks ninth in the country in scoring at 80.6 points per game, with the kind of scoring balance (four players averaging 11.7 points or higher) to give teams fits. The Golden Eagles first need to take care of a challenging Ohama team in the quarterfinals, but if they do, a repeat of their six-point win over the Bisons in early January is very much in play.

WEST COAST (MARCH 5-10, LAS VEGAS)

TEAM TO BEAT: Gonzaga Bulldogs (29-2 SU, 16-15 ATS, 25-6 O/U)

Let's start with a rare side note: how on earth does a 25-6 O/U mark even happen? Did the books sleep on the Bulldogs THAT much? Whatever the case, this team continues to humiliate opposing defenses (its 87.7 ppg scoring average tops the NCAA field by 4.5 points) while impressively holding its own at the defensive end (69.6 ppg against). And while fellow ranked foe BYU should provide a stiff test in the final, we see Gonzaga recapturing its West Coast Conference crown.

LIVE UNDERDOG: San Francisco Dons (20-11 SU, 12-17-1 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U)

So here's the bad news: the Dons would need to beat three higher seeds, including Gonzaga and BYU, most likely, in consecutive games to win the WCC title. But there's some good news for those of you looking for a big-time underdog play: the Dons have a win over the Cougars while giving Gonzaga all it could handle in a four-point loss just over a month ago. They'll need plenty of things to bounce their way, but crazier things have happened in conference tournaments.

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