NC State visits Louisville in a matchup of ACC contenders, with the Cardinals looking to protect home court against a Wolfpack team that can score with anyone.
I'm backing an early Under in my NC State vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for Monday, February 9.
NC State vs Louisville prediction
NC State vs Louisville best bet: First half Under 76.5 (-115)
The total opened high, and I expect an ugly first half as both teams adjust to a difficult schematic matchup.
Louisville is known for its shooting, but the Cardinals' most efficient offense comes when Sanada Fru's rim gravity opens up those perimeter looks.
NC State allows just 0.77 points per possession at the rim, ranking in the 88.5th percentile nationally. This isn't a team that occasionally contests shots. It eliminates the rim in bunches.
When Louisville can't score inside, those kick-out threes get tighter. Defenses don't collapse the same way, and shooters face longer closeouts. The Cards' half-court offense will need time to adjust in the opening 20 minutes.
The Wolfpack want to push the pace, ranking 91st nationally in tempo, but they’ll have to be more cautious, as Louisville can destroy them in the open court.
While it’s a bit of a surprise, the Cardinals have been quite good defensively on direct post-ups. They’ll see a ton of that from NC State tonight and Ven Allen-Lubin.
With a first-half adjustment period needed for both teams, 76.5 is too high for how this game will be played out of the gate.
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NC State vs Louisville same-game parlay
J'Vonne Hadley is capable of creating his own shot, hunting matchups, and scoring in the middle of the floor regularly for Louisville. Those are all things NC State has struggled with.
I like his points overall because of this, but saw a slightly better edge on his threes prop. He’s hit at least one in five of the last games he’s played over 30 minutes, and I expect him to get a ton of run this evening.
I paired that with another low-threshold play: Sanada Fru Over 1.5 assists. He's going to take a dip in this matchup, but his underrated passing ability has a chance to shine.
Louisville can pull him away from the rim, see the floor, and hit an area where NC State has been vulnerable this season — cuts to the perimeter.
NC State vs Louisville SGP
- First half Under 76.5
- J'vonne Hadley Over 0.5 threes
- Sanada Fru Over 1.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Fru(gal) scoring
Fru's game lives at the rim. His cuts, rolls, and putbacks all happen in the paint, where NC State is elite. This is one of the toughest schematic matchups Fru has faced all year, and Louisville will adjust by leaning on the perimeter shooters rather than forcing Fru into contested finishes.
NC State vs Louisville SGP
- First half Under 76.5
- J'vonne Hadley Over 0.5 threes
- Sanada Fru Over 1.5 assists
- Sanada Fru Under 10.5 points
NC State vs Louisville odds
- Spread: NC State +6.5 | Louisville -6.5
- Moneyline: NC State +230 | Louisville -280
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 | Under 161.5
NC State vs Louisville betting trend to know
NC State has hit the first-half moneyline in 22 of its last 32 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Louisville.
How to watch NC State vs Louisville
| Location | KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY |
| Date | Monday, February 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NC State vs Louisville key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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