Two Sunshine State rivals face off tonight when the Miami Hurricanes take on the Florida Gators in the GEICO Jacksonville Hoops Showdown.
The Canes are enjoying a 3-0 start, but face their first true test of the season after an abysmal 7-24 season last year. The Gators continue their brutal out-of-conference slate that has already seen them fall to Arizona.
My Miami vs. Florida predictions and college basketball picks explain why I’m backing the Canes to cover the spread.
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Miami vs Florida prediction
Miami vs Florida best bet: Miami +10.5 (-110)
The Miami Hurricanes have enjoyed an early-season schedule loaded with cupcakes. The really good ones, too. Like the ones you get at Costco or Publix with that almost-too-sweet buttercream frosting.
That’s why it’s hard to know just how they’re going to match up with the Florida Gators, who will present a level of size and speed the Canes have yet to encounter. Still, multiple factors give me pause when looking at the Gators laying 10.5 points.
First, this Florida team is struggling from downtown. The best outside shooting performance for the Gators came against Arizona, when they went just 7-for-27 from beyond the arc. They’ve followed that up with six makes on 32 tries against North Florida and six makes on 31 tries against Florida State.
The Gators have offset that by posting an offensive rebound rate of at least 37% in all three games. Still, the Canes have a frontcourt that can compete on the glass, led by Ernest Udeh Jr, who posted a 20.6% defensive rebound rate and 12.8% offensive rebound rate last year at TCU.
And if Miami can corral those long rebounds, then watch out. The Canes push the tempo and want to play a full-court battle, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo, per Bart Torvik.
Florida is allowing too many free throws so far this season, and the Canes will take advantage of that. Combine that with the outside shooting woes by the Gators and their struggles from the charity stripe as well, and I’ll bank on Todd Golden’s squad to go 0-4 ATS to start the season.
Miami vs Florida same-game parlay
Miami has clearly improved over last season and made some big additions in the transfer portal. Malik Reneau has had an impressive start with three consecutive 20-point outings.
This will be the first true test for the Canes, however, and Florida is the better team playing close to its campus. Miami will cover, but the Gators will win.
I expect plenty of first-half scoring. Florida has allowed 40+ points in the first half against both Arizona and Florida State, and the Gators operate at a high pace themselves, ranking 55th in adjusted tempo.
There should be plenty of possessions in the first half, and the Canes rank 16th in eFG% while getting to the line at a high clip. Florida will generate enough second-chance points to help push the total Over in the first half.
Miami vs Florida SGP
- Miami +10.5
- Florida moneyline
- First half Over 82
Miami vs Florida odds
- Spread: Miami +10.5 | Florida -10.5
- Moneyline: Miami -560 | Florida +390
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 | Under 171.5
Miami vs Florida betting trend to know
Miami has cashed the over in 21 of its last 32 games for +9.0 units and a 26% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Florida.
How to watch Miami vs Florida
| Location | Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Sunday, November 16, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Miami vs Florida key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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