Maryland vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Terrapins Keep it Tight

These teams are on different trajectories with Maryland on the up while Michigan State is sinking. Our college betting picks expect these trends to continue tonight with Maryland keeping things tight against the Spartans on the road.

Last Updated: Feb 7, 2023 10:19 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Maryland Terrapins NCAAB
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The Maryland Terrapins and Michigan State Spartans meet in a key Big Ten battle at Breslin Center.

The Terrapins have fired off four consecutive wins while winning five of the past six games overall, scooting up the conference standings.

The Spartans have sunk like a stone, dropping two in a row, and five of the past seven games overall. MSU is now just 6-6 inside the conference and in big-time danger of being left out of the NCAA Tournament if it doesn’t turn things around.

Will the Terrapins continue to pile up victories, climbing up the standings, or will the Spartans be able to halt their losing skid and score a much-needed resume-building win? We’ll discuss in our college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Michigan State on Tuesday, February 7.

Maryland vs Michigan State best odds

Maryland vs Michigan State picks and predictions

The Terrapins have picked up four straight wins, their longest winning streak since rattling off eight consecutive victories to open the season.

Maryland has scored 81 or more points in two of the past three games, finally snapping out of a long-term offensive funk. It still has work to do, however, as the Terps are still averaging just 71.2 ppg, which is rather middling in terms of the national stage.

The Terps are a horrific 3-point shooting team, too, cashing at just a 30.9% clip. However, it was a surprising 43% (9-for-21) in Minnesota in an 81-46 blowout win over the Gophers. Maryland turned the ball over just five times, too, and if it can take care of the ball like that, it will be able to beat anybody.

Michigan State has slipped offensively, going for 70 or fewer points in nine straight games dating back to January 7. It was a dismal 34% (20-for-58) from the field, while hitting at just a 19% (4-for-21) clip from downtown. Head coach Tom Izzo’s team turned it over 13 times, too.

Michigan State has lost two straight games, and five of the past seven games overall. The Spartans have been pretty strong at home, however, winning two straight against Iowa and Rutgers, while winning seven of the past eight at Breslin Center. The only loss for the Spartans was against previously top-ranked Purdue by a 64-63 score on January 16.

Sparty have been money at home, but the Terps are playing tremendous basketball lately and cashing on the regular. Michigan State should win a close battle, but Maryland will keep it within two scores. This one could end in a buzzer beater.

My best bet: Maryland +4.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

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Maryland vs Michigan State spread analysis

The Terrapins have not only won five of the past six games, but it is a perfect 6-for-6 against the spread during the span. Maryland has been stacking covers, going 5-0 ATS in the past five after a cover while going 4-0 ATS in the past four after a straight-up win.

Maryland is also 4-0 ATS in the past four games against teams with a winning overall record, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six games after a straight up win of 20 or more points.

On the flip side, Michigan State has failed to cover in each of the past four games, while going 0-4 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall record, too.

While the Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings at Breslin Center against the Terps, that’s not terribly important now. A lot of the players who contributed to that trend have moved along and will not be on the floor Tuesday.

The truth is, Maryland is playing good basketball right now, and trending in the right direction. Michigan State is playing awful, and while desperate, it isn’t worth betting just because it's due. If you bet like that, you’re going to get burned — a lot.

Maryland vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

The Terrapins have been turning up the intensity of offense, but overall Maryland is still averaging just 71.2 ppg to rank No. 185 in the country. And while the field-goal percentage is rather so-so at 44.8%, it’s the 3-point shooting that has previously held this team back. The Terps are hitting just 30.9% overall, one of the worst marks in the country. 

Defensively, Maryland has been on lockdown, holding teams to 62.5 ppg, which is in the Top 25 in the country. It also has a strong perimeter defense, limiting the opposition to just 30.1%, which is No. 29 overall.

Like UMD, Michigan State has struggled offensively while locking it down on the defensive end. The Spartans have racked up just 68.3 ppg, which is rather surprising since they’re a pretty solid 3-point shooting team at 36.9%.

MSU allows just 65.9 ppg, and it's even better against the three, matching the Terps with a 30.1% three-point percentage on defense.

The lean is to go low, as the Spartans have cashed the Under in each of the past five at home, and the Terps are a perfect 8-0 to the Under in the past eight on the road.

Maryland vs Michigan State betting trend to know

The Terrapins have covered in four consecutive games against teams with a winning overall record, while the Spartans are 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Find more college basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Michigan State.

Maryland vs Michigan State game info

Location: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Date: Tuesday, February 7, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

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