The NCAA Tournament always delivers on the drama. And while Friday offered very little in the way of upset wins, we got multiple March Madness upsets on Thursday thanks to the likes of High Point and VCU.
The Round of 32 slate offers some very interesting matchups. I’ve keyed in on four that offer betting value in my underdog March Madness picks for the second round.
Our favorite March Madness upset picks for Round 2
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Kansas moneyline
UCLA moneyline
No. 11 VCU vs No. 3 Illinois
South Region, Saturday @ 7:50 p.m. ET, CBS
March is defined by your performance in the clutch, and Illinois has lost six of its seven games this season decided by five or fewer points.
Since a four-point win over Texas Tech in early November, they’ve lost the last six such games — the last four in overtime.
The common denominator in those games was an inability to get stops, especially against talented guards. VCU has those in spades.
Illinois also struggled to maintain a big lead in many of those games, and the Rams have no quit in them. Just ask North Carolina, who watched a 19-point lead evaporate in the second half.
VCU wears teams down with a deep rotation, allowing the Rams to defend the perimeter aggressively. They’ll also find success against an Illini backcourt that hasn’t done well against talented guards who can create off the dribble.
If the Rams keep this game close late, they’re better equipped to make the clutch plays needed to win.
No. 12 High Point vs No. 4 Arkansas
East Region, Saturday @ 9:45 p.m. ET, TBS
Arkansas should win this game more often than not, given their size advantage inside. But there’s a pathway for High Point to win on Saturday, one that makes the +500 odds very favorable.
Similar to Wisconsin, the Razorbacks take care of the basketball, have a guard who can generate his own shot at any time, and run a very efficient offense. But much like the Badgers, the Razorbacks don’t force many turnovers of their own.
High Point is aggressive in terms of jumping the passing lanes and generating points in transition. The Panthers also operate at a very high tempo, which could be problematic for an Arkansas team that has little depth due to injuries to Karter Knox and Nick Pringle.
The Razorbacks already struggle at times to limit second-chance opportunities. High Point picked up 13 offensive boards against Wisconsin, turning many into points.
If the Panthers knock down their 3-point attempts like they did against Wisconsin, they'll have a good chance to pull off another upset.
No. 5 St. John's vs No. 4 Kansas
Midwest Region, Sunday @ 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS
St. John’s entered the tournament as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. So, of course, they knocked down six of their first nine attempts from beyond the arc vs. Northern Iowa and built an comfortable early lead.
I don’t see that repeating itself against Kansas. And if the Jayhawks get the same Darryn Peterson that showed up in the Big 12 tournament and the tournament opener vs. Cal Baptist, this becomes a very intriguing matchup.
Both teams defend exceptionally well, but the Jayhawks present an athleticism that can match the Red Storm. The presence of Flory Bidunga also means that Rick Pitino can’t utilize Zuby Ejiofor as a disruptor on the perimeter, as he did against Northern Iowa.
St. John’s relies on getting to the rim and to the free-throw line. Since the start of February, Kansas is allowing opponents to score just 32.6% of their points at the rim, while ranking 30th in FT rate against and 13th in eFG%. The Jayhawks also block shots at a Top 10 rate.
No. 10 UCLA vs No. 2 UConn
Midwest Region, Sunday @ 8:45 p.m. ET, TNT
It’s concerning how many times Furman got to the charity stripe against UConn. But it’s not surprising given the Huskies rank 308th in defensive FT rate.
UCLA will make the Huskies defend for long stretches. The Bruins, just like UConn, operate at a slow pace and rank Top 50 in assist rate. They rarely turn the ball over, and are a Top 20 3-point shooting team.
Free throws could be key. UCLA’s 76.6% accuracy ranks them 41st this season, giving them an advantage over a UConn team ranked in the 200s in FT%.
UCLA forces a turnover on 18.2% of possessions, ranking 82nd nationally. Since February 1, UConn has a turnover rate of 17.6%, which ranks 271st nationally.
In a game of limited offensive trips, that could send the Huskies packing in the opening weekend.
