Sweet 16 Parlay Picks: March Madness Predictions for Thursday

How sweet it is to love college basketball. It feels like we’ve been waiting forever since this past weekend, but the NCAA Tournament resumes on Thursday with four Sweet 16 matchups in the March Madness bracket. 

After looking over the March Madness odds board, I’ve pieced together two different parlays. Both are comprised of player props, an emerging market in the college sports betting world that has plenty of opportunities. 

What are some of the best props on the board with which to piece together some March Madness parlays? Check out my March Madness picks for Thursday, March 28.

March Madness Sweet 16 Parlays

• PJ Hall o22.5 PRA, RJ Davis o21.5 pts, T. Lipsey o4.5 asts (+605 at FanDuel)
• C. Love o2.5 made 3s, A. Karaban o1.5 made 3s, E. Cadeau o2.5 rebs (+370 at DraftKings)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Sweet 16 parlay picks

PJ Hall Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists

RJ Davis Over 21.5 points

Tamin Lipsey Over 4.5 assists

+605 at FanDuel

This three-leg player prop parlay is working under the narrative that the best players will be on their “A” game on the brightest stage. You eagerly await this point in the season and you expect the stars to shine when it matters most. Not only that, but all three have advantageous matchups. 

First up is Clemson Tigers big man PJ Hall. For my money, he’s one of the best bigs in the country — he scores from all three levels, knocks down his free throws (79%), and contributes 2.3 steals plus blocks per game on the defensive end. He’ll be needed here for the Tigers to keep things close as they’re currently +7.5 against the spread. 

The surface-level stats will tell you that the Arizona Wildcats have a good interior defense. While that may be true, it’s also not the whole picture, and I like this matchup anyway. Part of that stellar rim defense is due to the presence of behemoth Oumar Ballo, who stands seven feet tall and weighs around 260 pounds. Hall is much more nimble and has a modern basketball body at 6-foot-10 and 235 pounds. 

I expect coach Brad Brownell to get the ball in Hall’s hands and let him cook by taking advantage of his quickness. It’s also a pace-up spot where the Wildcats rank 16th in adjusted tempo, so possessions will hardly be at a premium. For a player averaging 26.3 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game, his prop of 23.5 P+R+A is too low. 

Next up is arguably the top guard in America — North Carolina Tar Heels RJ Davis. He’s been a pleasure to watch this season, blossoming into a true scoring threat the likes of which are practically unmatched at the power conference level. He’s come through time and time again for Hubert Davis’ squad in big moments and there’s not a player I’d rather trust with the ball in their hands in moments like this. 

He should have the ball in his hands plenty against an Alabama Crimson Tide team that ranks eighth in adjusted tempo. Alabama doesn’t play much defense either, ranking 101th in adjusted defensive efficiency while surrendering 80.9 ppg. I took another star guard to go Over their points prop in the 20s against Bama last week when Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster went for 29 in a loss, and I see no reason to avoid going back to the well. 

The third and final prop involves Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey going Over his assist prop of 4.5. He’s a pass-first guard who averages 4.9 assists per game, and this a beautiful matchup against a defensively-inept Illinois Fighting Illini team that ranks 166th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric since the start of February. This prop is offered for plus money (ranging from +102 to +110 depending on the book), which is a bonus. 

Caleb Love Over 2.5 made 3s

Alex Karaban Over 1.5 made 3s

Elliot Cadeau Over 2.5 rebounds

+370 at DraftKings

This three-leg parlay will take advantage of certain matchups while continuing to hunt the college player prop market with many hidden gems. I’ve pieced together two snipers to go Over their 3-pointer props and one guard to exceed his rebounding prop. 

The first sniper is Arizona guard Caleb Love. If you’ve watched March Madness before then you probably know his name — he was instrumental in North Carolina’s run to the National Championship game in 2022. He’s since transferred schools and landed in Tucson, where he was named this year’s Pac-12 Player of the Year. 

Love has always been a gunner and his volume has shot up this year to new highs in 3-pointers (2.6) and attempts (7.7) per game. The Wildcats play with pace (16th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric) and Love is their best outside shooter, so the volume uptick is understandable and should be sustained. 

This isn’t a bad matchup against a Clemson defense that lets opponents fly away from downtown, ranking 312th in Haslametrics' three-point attempt rate metric defensively and 294th in 3-point attempts allowed per game (24). I’ll bet on Love exceeding his 3-point prop of 2.5 on Thursday. 

Next up is Alex Karaban of the UConn Huskies. The 6-foot-8 marksman averaged 2.1 three-pointers per game and shoots at 38.7%, which will come in handy against a San Diego State Aztecs defense that ranks 278th in 3-point attempt rate (Haslametrics). 

Brian Dutcher’s squad likes to force opponents to the perimeter, ranking 298th in percentage of opponent field goal attempts that come from behind the line (per Hoop-Math). Karaban’s 3-point prop is set at just 1.5 and I’ll be hitting the Over.

Lastly, I’ll take North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau to snag more than 2.5 rebounds. I love this matchup because the Tar Heels crash the boards (12th nationally in rebounding percentage at 55%) and this is a pace-up spot against the Crimson Tide (eighth in adjusted tempo per KenPom). 

Cadeau has grabbed at least three rebounds in seven of his last eight games and I think we’re getting a bit of a gift with this discounted prop.

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