Make no mistake about your March Madness survivor entry in the Sweet Sixteen. You are no longer picking just one game. Inherent to every decision you make from here on out, you are effectively picking every remaining game in the NCAA Tournament.
No pressure, though, none whatsoever in these March Madness picks.
Best Sweet 16 March Madness survivor picks
Arizona Wildcats
Iowa State CyclonesOdds from bet365, one of our best betting apps. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.
Thursday: Purdue or Arizona
Yes, that says “or.” It could also read, “conventional choice or contrarian choice.”
First of all, looking at the South Regional, the risk inherent to Iowa vs. Nebraska is not worth pondering. The Cornhuskers are favored by only a bucket — -1.5 (-110) at bet365 — after the rivals split two games already this season, including their regular-season finale heading to overtime in Nebraska.
And whoever wins the Illinois vs. Houston game should be your reserved pick to advance out of the East Regional, set to be favored by multiple buckets in the Elite Eight.
That leaves the “Purdue or Arizona ” wonder in the West Regional. Both are favored by three buckets. Both have decisive matchup edges — Texas is vulnerable against quality backcourts; Arkansas should not try to outrun the Wildcats.
If you manage to make it to the weekend, you'll have to decide who will win the Purdue vs. Arizona matchup anyway.
That is the stressor of this puzzle at this stage. Your best way of avoiding any “Purdue or Arizona” wonder would be to lock the winter into the national championship game while also staking your survival on Iowa vs. Nebraska. You have better odds simply deciding on “Purdue or Arizona.”
More entries will take the Wildcats into the Final Four, meaning they'll take the Boilermakers on Thursday. That logic is sound; Arizona will be favored in this hypothetical Elite Eight matchup, though one might wonder if that spread will be within a bucket given Purdue’s preferred plodding pace.
That sets up taking the Wildcats in the Sweet Sixteen as the contrarian choice, the one that theoretically provides more value in your large pools. Making a bet because it is contrarian is always a test of fortitude, the logic’s validity entirely depending on your risk tolerance.
But let’s put it this way: Yours truly has 10 survivor bids alive across four different leagues. Seven of those entries will be on Arizona on Thursday.
Why? The Wildcats will eventually face a math problem in the NCAA Tournament.
They rank third to last in the country in the rate at which they take 3-pointers, chucking from deep on barely more than a quarter of their field-goal attempts. That reluctance creates worry if Arizona ever falls behind or tries to keep up with a 3-point shooting team.
Purdue shoots from beyond the arc on more than 40% of its field-goal attempts while ranking No. 8 in the country by making 38.8% of those deep shots.
This contrarian approach also firmly believes the Boilermakers will knock off the Wildcats on Saturday, which is worth considering when making your Thursday survivor pick.
Friday: Iowa State
Thus far this tournament, these thoughts have also included “Also considered” mentions. For Friday of the Sweet Sixteen, no one else was considered.
The first person to tell you they have a strong conviction of who will win Michigan State vs. Connecticut is lying to you. Duke should be favored by multiple buckets against either team in the Elite Eight, so you certainly cannot snag the Blue Devils in the Sweet Sixteen.
That leaves the Midwest Region.
Could fully healthy Iowa State knock off Michigan on Sunday? Absolutely. The Cyclones play a physical brand of basketball that, quite frankly, should keep any opposing head coach awake at night. But with star forward Joshua Jefferson’s status murky, faith cannot be put in Iowa State.
The Cyclones should beat Tennessee with or without Jefferson. After all, we're talking about Rick Barnes as an underdog in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. He is 0-5 in those moments in his career.
And the Iowa State hope certainly is that Jefferson will be on the court on Friday, though one can then worry that action will aggravate his ankle injury enough to temper his production against Michigan on Sunday.
All of which is to say, there is no conventional or contrarian debate on Friday. There is only Iowa State.
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