While the Duke Blue Devils are three-bucket favorites in the Sweet Sixteen against the St. John’s Red Storm, one must wonder how Blue Devils’ head coach Jon Scheyer will adjust if and when Red Storm head coach Rick Pitino launches a full-court press.
Pondering that wrinkle can provide value in your St. John’s vs. Duke prop picks on Friday, March 27.
St. John's vs Duke props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Cameron Boozer |
Over 4.5 Assists | +100 |
| Cameron Boozer |
Over 1.5 3-Pointers | +115 |
 Zuby Ejiofor |
Under 16.5 Points | -120 |
Prop #1: Cameron Boozer Over 4.5 assists
Cameron Boozer already often operates as a bit of a point forward for Duke, handling the ball at the elbow or the top of the key and finding shooters or cutters. He demands such defensive attention that other Blue Devils end up open.
Duke should emphasize that to break the St. John’s press. Getting Boozer the ball at or near midcourt and asking him to advance it into offensive initiation will provide the Blue Devils a needed outlet against the press, and the Red Storm have been pressing more in the NCAA Tournament.
Each one of those possessions will have a higher chance of Boozer finding a scorer. He already has a notable assist rate and has managed at least four assists in seven of his last eight games. A couple more possessions with the ball in his hands because of Pitino’s pressure should propel Boozer to at least five assists.
Prop #2: Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 threes
Each time Boozer helps break the St. John’s press, he will end up with the ball on the perimeter. And once the Red Storm enter halfcourt defense, their press tends to lag for a beat.
That is common. The focus of a full-court press is to force turnovers and cause some havoc in an offense. Once the offense cracks halfcourt, there is a moment of transition into a more standard set.
That moment of lag should provide Boozer a glimpse of the rim. For a 39.8% shooter from beyond the arc, that glimpse may be enough.
Prop #3: Zuby Ejiofor Under 16.5 points
Duke’s defense fell off without Patrick Ngongba in March. In five games without him, the Blue Devils’ defensive efficiency fell to No. 45, per barttorvik.com. Up until March 3, Duke’s defense had sat at No. 2 in the country.
The bad news for St. John’s is that Ngongba returned in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Sure, he played only 13 minutes, but that was likely somewhat a result of missing three weeks of action. Ngongba’s cardio may have needed a bit of easing in. Furthermore, Duke won by 23 points; there was no need to stress the 6-foot-11 center.
Expect more Ngongba against St. John’s, and expect Duke to look more like the defensive juggernaut it was most of the season, holding opponents to just 46.0% from inside the arc and forcing the average 2-point shot to be taken from 6.9 feet away from the rim, the 23rd-furthest defensive average in the country.
Zuby Ejiofor thrives inside, but facing Ngongba is going to make life much more difficult than usual.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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